The count is mature either way. Election fireworks. VIX is elevated. I have no idea which way it goes but the 1st chart below has a rule that wave 4 cannot go into wave 1 which the green line horizontal line shows.
The DJIA aligns with this count
The VIX is in an ascending triangle pattern which suggests a breakout higher.
Short term interest rates are at a crossroads. If the 6 month yield crosses above the 3-month yield that may signal again a rise in interest rates as the 3 month would eventually follow. Again, this is the chart the Fed uses to determine interest rates overall. The market moves first, and the Fed follows.
(It is beyond the scope of this blog to explain why the Fed must follow the 3/6-month yield charts, but suffice it to say they would lose money – and the overall Ponzi market would break – if they did not follow what the market sets for these short-term lending yields)
It seems like that Election Day – or the days that surround it – is going to be some sort of wave count top. That is what a simple count seems to be indicating, I’m not trying to make this hard. I’m not trying to rush the count. My lack of posts over the past year is a testimony to the fact that I had realized long ago that the financial madness needs time to play out in all its fullness and we can do nothing to rush things. Can the market go so much higher for longer? Well, the shape and time and overall fullness of the count matters. We either adhere to some form of Elliott Wave theory – which I believe is of God – or else this is just a waste of time. And the count below which culminates over 2 years’ time, seems quite mature.
If we achieve another new all-time SPX high, we will have had enough subwaves to complete the massive 5 wave structure since the 2022 low. It does not mean this is the finished structure, it’s that the minimum has been met. And this has been many months in waiting. It is one reason for so few posts, the market has been fairly boring, and we had to have patience to let the structure play out. As so it has.
The NASDAQ Composite has been lagging. The DJIA has about the same count as the SPX.
I am glad the market quickly recovered from my last post and launched to new all-time highs. This keeps the wave structure honest. The primary count is that Minor wave 3 of (5) is underway and this implies some more upside until it stalls in a sideways wave 4 and then final 5 of (5) of [5].
As I suggested in the last post, if the market was not finished, it would likely take a few more months. We are likely to hold up until election day or near election day to complete the overall massive wave structure since the 2022 low. It’s starting to get interesting again, and I’m likely to post a lot more.
I hope the final few Minor waves plays out as advertised that would neatly wrap things up. It is hard to argue the overall count of this structure. There really is not much nuance in it all. The DJIA agrees with the SPX. The Composite however is lagging a new all-time high which is not a bullish sign.
Of course, China is in complete disagreement. They are approaching a foul low in social mood. This could of course bring war with Taiwan.
The bond market is already signaling another potential .25 basis rate cut.
And of course, the long awaited 30-year wave [2] seems to have finally blossomed.
Well, I’m posting tonight because perhaps we have a significant day. As you can see from my post a month ago, I was anticipating a new all-time high and that has occurred in many indices including the DJIA and the Global Dow for instance. But the SPX has come up about 20 points shy of a new intraday high.
CONCLUSION:
The wave structure is sufficiently developed to consider a top is in and that the final 5 subwaves have unfolded. However, there is certainly alternate wave options to continue higher. I will say this: If the wave structure is not complete, it is likely going to take a few more months to do so. This is partly why I haven’t posted much. The market has become boring. Yet at the same time, the recent sudden and historic VIX spike in August should be concerning to bulls. The market is just looking for a reason to throw up and dump for good.
Primary count is that we are in corrective Intermediate wave (4). It might take time to sort out its bottom. But then a late year rally or new year rally to take it to newer all time highs.
The top alt is of course the top is in.
The DJIA supports this view
Emergency rate cuts is in likely. The 3 and 6 month yields have already fallen below the Fed Fund target window proving that the market tells the Fed what to do. A 1/4 cut is in store perhaps within a week. I’m sure the Fed is waiting a few days to see where this is going.
The primary count is that wave Intermediate wave (3) of primary wave [5] has topped. A significant decline to intercept the price top of the previous wave 4 is the best count.
The most bearish count is that the final top is in.
I dunno, the Roaring Kitty event on Friday was just too weird. I agree with this article suspecting that may have been a local “top”. (or even a final top)
And we can see the subwaves seem to be mature. We have enough waves to make a good count. Could be due for a 350 point+ pullback.
The top alt count is that this is indeed a blowoff top. If we have a sudden acceleration to the upper trendline, and possible overthrow and prices go above, that is suspect that we are nearing the end.
Finally, some confirmation of an updated wave count. The primary count has the market holding up above the 2021/2022 highs. They probably let Trump win and unleash the forces of evil and bring down the global financial system then after he wins. To place all the global blame on him and his followers. Seems about right.
The alt count is that we are in a blowoff top. Could be exciting.
I haven’t posted much lately I know but for two reasons:
1) Having predicted that we are in the last days (yeah, I guess join the club huh?) I was tired of seeming to be a cheerleader for WWIII. For that is truly the next prophetic event on God’s end time timeline, not the false pre-trib rapture which is of the devil. Now don’t get me wrong, I do believe in the 1st resurrection/rapture, but I take the post-trib/pre-wrath position of that of the “new” IFB. Which means we go through the 7 seals which is the wrath of Satan and his minions, his reprobate children of the devil. You can find a good film explaining it here:
And while you’re at it, I’m non-dispensationalist, non-Zionist (most of you have figured that out). I loathe the “Judeo-Christian moniker and reject it completely I want nothing to do with wicked Judaism!
2) The market has been in a tight uptrend – and somewhat boring – and was just waiting for the waves to unfold a bit more. Today was a noticeable turnaround day, so it’s appropriate to see what the squiggle count might be.
From a monthly view, we see the overall very long-term count.
From the daily. This count supposes that the extreme wave 3 of (3) of [5] up is almost over, and the summer/fall will be very choppy tracing out Minor 4 and (4) and culminating in the final drive to (5) of [5]. But that the market will generally hold up until the election and perhaps finally fall apart. The key is that the top of prior wave [3] (2021 high) is tested and holds. This is about the 4800 range.
What I don’t like about this count is that global war seems to be indeed on our doorsteps and time is a factor. But if the world can manage to keep muddling before Satan’s final provocation, we have to consider it.
And finally, the weekly count shows the top alternate is that this move up has been an extended wave (5) of [5] and we are in the “blow-off” top phase. If global war is triggered within the next month or so, this could be a winning ticket.
THOUGHTS ON GLOBAL WAR:
Anyone reading this blog over the last few years knows I have been predicting the Ukraine war would go on. I also predicted China/Taiwan would be a war. That has yet to happen (but seems destined). The 3rd conflict I was not sure but speculated Iran, etc. I did not see the Gaza/Israel war coming and it has ramped up to almost a regional Muslim/Jew conflict. Obviously, Iran is now squarely front and center. I expect them to announce they have the “bomb” sometime before this year is out.
So, we are still in the opening chess moves and the middle game seems about to commence. The world is growing darker.
The Book of Daniel prophesies that the Antichrist – the beast – will subdue 3 nations of the final 10 at the end times and overcome the saints (believers of Jesus Christ). I have proposed the 10 end times nations are the nuclear weapon nations which are currently nine: US, UK, Russia, Pakistan, India, France, North Korea, China, Israel. If Iran declares having nuclear weapons, I believe that will fulfill the 10th nation.
The 3 nations that need subdued are probably Russia, China, and then either Israel or Iran, I’m not sure which. Whatever it takes to get all the global nations to be on board with the New World Order. Whoever is not doing the will of the Great Whore – Babylon USA – to form the NWO.
My prediction is Russia, China, Israel need to be subdued. It is Israel, which is trying to bring in the Antichrist, their Messiah. Iran is trying to bring about the final prophet. Foolish Christians are looking for the 2nd coming of Christ and are fooled by dispensationalism and Zionism and the false pre-trib rapture. It’s going to be a rough ride this year.
The most important thing is to get saved to Jesus by believing he died for your sins.
