Again, things are looking shaky for the rally. We have solid overlap now of the key wave marker. The structure looks fine just as it is. 50% retrace and about 4 months time seems reasonable.
Prices are in the area where gap downs have occurred and remained open for a bit. The open gap at the top of 4 of (1) is still intact.
Both the VIX and the CPCE have flipped from bearishness to bullishness. Sentiment is again ripe for a market downturn.
The NYSE shows a rapidly dropping loss of thrust. If we have one huge down day within the next 4 days, it may trigger another “negative breadth thrust” scenario. And after these scenarios trigger, you can see more selling of significance occurs. We had 2 marginal positive events, but prices advanced not so much.
Playing around with squiggle counts if wave C has indeed topped. Double zigzag would fit best.
This is about how I see the count at the moment: wave C of (2) and just trying to figure how to finish out wave C.
One such pondering of the squiggles is presented below. Remember a few days ago it was suggested for the rally to continue to higher highs it would have to tread sideways for a bit to shake out the sellers at this newly captured support line. And so far, that is what seems to be going on.
Ok. Well, the market slightly dipped but recovered and as suggested last night, it’ll have to tread sideways a bit above the recent regained support to be able to thrust higher and finish out wave C of (2). Technically, the wave violated the rules so it still might just be an overall fake breakout and a severe downdraft is coming. It doesn’t look right for a bullish wave at this stage any longer….we shall see.
3 And as he sat upon the mount of Olives, the disciples came unto him privately, saying, Tell us, when shall these things be? and what shall be the sign of thy coming, and of the end of the world?
4 And Jesus answered and said unto them, Take heed that no man deceive you.
5 For many shall come in my name, saying, I am Christ; and shall deceive many.
6 And ye shall hear of wars and rumours of wars: see that ye be not troubled: for all these things must come to pass, but the end is not yet.
7 For nation shall rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom: and there shall be famines, and pestilences, and earthquakes, in divers places.
8 All these are the beginning of sorrows.
I was wondering when a major earthquake would next appear, and it has done so. I pray for all the people suffering through such things. The latest here:
If this is the “beginning of sorrows” as Jesus spoke about in verse 8 – and I have proposed, we are indeed into – then there will be more earthquakes of great magnitude across the world. This is not God’s wrath. This is the wrath of Satan and his minions. Does God give Satan the power to shake the earth temporarily at these end times? The bible does not say why we have earthquakes worth mentioning at the end times. Some believe it is because hell, located in the center of the earth, is filling up fast.
It could also be that now we have 8 billion on the planet, these once-in-a-century events cause way more death and destruction versus 100 years ago when populations and planet density was much less.
We do know from the Book of Job, that God temporarily granted Satan the power to hurt Job and his family. In fact, a great wind destroyed Job’s children’s house where they were all eating and all 10 of Job’s children died in the collapsed house. We can presume Satan brought that terrible destroying wind and God had granted him that power.
It could be the same in the end times. Satan is granted power to destroy which he excels at anyway. Most of the people that died or will die in the earthquakes that hit Turkey/Syria we can safely assume an overwhelming majority were not saved to Jesus and went to hell as a result. It is a terrible thought but that is the truth of the matter. We cannot hide from the truth. I truly wish they were saved.
And those who are left to pick up the pieces can still get saved by calling upon the name of the Lord Jesus Christ, the only pathway to eternal life.
Things are looking shaky all of a sudden. The market has stopped just short of retracing into my key wave marker. If it is to continue upwards, it’ll have to tread water sideways for a bit probably. After having moved above major price resistance of wave A, it may need to consolidate sideways before gaining more traction. Otherwise, the rally is probably over. And it has been a satisfactory rally achieving 50% retrace in a wave (2) so far.
The GDOW is quite elevated which is one reason to suspect the rally is in the final stretch unless you are inclined to buy the corrupt global market in the greatest times of uncertainty the world has ever known for the past 80 years. We have a full-on superpower war, and it is not yet gone “hot” but seems to be headed that way.
And ye shall hear of wars and rumours of wars.
It’s all just computers algorithms goosing each other anyway. Fake markets. Yet they learned and still cannot help but to obey general Elliott wave patterns.
The best count has the Wilshire in wave (2) up. A perfect 50% retrace so far.
Yet technically, my less preferred count of (1) – (2), 1 – 2, is still a valid count believe it or not. Wave 2 is still smaller than the larger wave (2).
Ok. We were guessing based on market internals and the wave structure we would be in wave (iii) of [iii] of C of (2) up and the last several days has proven that was the best count. We have a key marker in place. The best count has wave C of (2) finishing up. How long and how high? Thats why we count squiggles.
The double Fibs show wave size relationships between waves A and C. I just made a Fib graph over wave A and duplicated it and placed the bottom at wave B. This lets us see easily when wave C = wave A in length which can be a common wave relationship in an A-B-C wave structure.
Overall, the Wilshire 5000 has reached a 50% overall retracement from all-time peak of November, 2021. I suspect prices will poke above wave peak of 4 of (1) down eventually.
The weekly suggests also that will happen to fulfill the double positive divergence in the RSI. An extreme price would be a “backtest” of the upper red trend line.
In other words to get back to an “extreme” bullish state of affairs, the market needs to re-conquer and get above this line. My prediction is that it will not be able to.
An idealized wave count and structure shown below. The Wilshire settled at the October 2022 low at the major support of the early February 2020 peak wave (D) of [4].
Well, there we had our price pop as suggested in the count.
The key wave marker is shown. If we just had the “third of a third” up, then we should see steady progress from here onward to finish wave C and the shorts who were not yet shaken out will be forced out and made to chase prices until wave (2) peaks.
The most bearish count is that wave C of (2) in the SPX is .618 x wave A. We are there if this is the case, and an immediate reversal should occur. But that’s probably not the case so don’t expect it to happen.
Well, it seems the market has worked itself up to a possible point where it will break upside surprise and jump over the resistance of the peak of wave “A” of (2).
Best squiggle count below if this is the case. (iii) of [iii] of C of (2).
It seems like upside surprise wave (iii) of [iii] of C of (2) up.
Again, the smaller target resides just above A. The larger target resides higher where C = A and more in time.
The Global Dow shows that the world is in a wave (2) up. This would be the final rise before the global war goes “hot”.
And I no longer get sarcastic emails about that. Even the willfully ignorant can see things are gone awry in this world. They no longer mock about global war conspiracies or that I am anti-vaccine idiot or that the global financial system is not in a global Ponzi scheme. They know it. And they now fear I was correct all along.
Ok, the primary count is shown below in the form of a simple 5 – 3 – 5 zigzag. [Note: Wave A could be counted as zigzag itself but for simplicity’s sake I think this works better especially since the SPX has a different peak].
The Wilshire is shown but the SPX is practically the same count. The best count has that minute [i] of wave C of (2) has completed. Today may have been all or some of Minute [ii]. Perhaps a bit more consolidation for Minute [ii].
The rule for wave C of (2), being a zigzag, is that wave C must finish higher than wave A in price. Therefore, wave C is represented by the blue target box. As the waves trace out, we will be able to tighten the count and the box itself.
The convergence of channel lines and trendlines helps determine where we are in the structure. The black Fibonacci scale is to indicate how much wave C relates to wave A. For instance, wave C would be .618 times wave A just above the peak price of A. This is sometimes a common ratio relationship between waves C and A.
The SPX is the same chart as above. I show this because it is easier to relate the wave relationships. Wave C = .618 x A @ SPX 4139.
The SPX daily shows the overall big picture count. Between 4139 and 4155 there is 50% overall retrace resistance and wave C would be about .62% x wave A. This is less than 4% above today’s close.
The more stretched out target is where wave C = wave A which is very common, and it is a full 9% above today’s close and would take much more time.
With all that said, it is good to be mentally prepared for the “upside surprise” bullish short-term scenario (s). However, the most bearish scenario remains valid but as I keep saying, prices need to turn down hard and fast soon. There is still room for the bearish count that has been shown for over a month.
I’ll call this the “global war goes hot” scenario. It is quite bizarre to me, having lived through the some of the cold war and remembering “The Day After” movie of the early 1980’s and the real fear people had of nuclear war. Now it’s like a farcical chess match to be pondered.
I guess decades of fake video games will do that to a generation of people. I’ll remind the casual reader that 2 superpowers openly fighting in an open proxy war is not actually the best time to be buying the stock market hand over fist.
There is no “contrarian” play when there is no longer worldwide deliveries of foods and goods due to sudden global war and an overnight collapse of the globalist supply system. And we all know that is their goal.
