Lots of charts tonight. The primary wave count is Minor 2 of Intermediate (3). Minor 2 is taking the form of an aggressive expanded 3-3-5 wave count. This is where wave [a] and wave [b] consist of three waves and wave [c] is in the form of an impulse five wave move. So far that is panning out just as expected.
The overall situation is shown here on the Wilshire 5000 chart with 3 target ranges with explanatory notes for each:
Swiggle counts. Overnight Monday futures going into Tuesday’s trading will help determine whether or not wave (iii) has been reached or not.
Again, a backtest seems correct.
The Composite is still down 25% from peak and not yet even a Fibonacci 38.2% retrace from its wave (2) peak. So, despite the newfound bullishness, you can see just how far the market has fallen already and if people have visions of grandeur on a new bull market, well, it has a lot of work ahead of it.
GDOW has met the resistance line.
I won’t have the NYSE “breadth thrust” data tonight. But I am guessing a significant “breadth thrust” event has occurred. A close of the indicator above the .61 mark would be quite an event. 11 days from sub .40 to above .61 mark is just 1 day short of a “Zweig Breadth Thrust” event. But as I said, I won’t have that data just yet.
Is this a concern for bears? Sure it is. the remedy for a positive event is to follow it up with a negative event. A “thrusting down” event. The wave structure suggest this will happen. Basically, the “big big” money will ponder this weekend at the prospect of getting out of the market at good prices. “Selling the rip”. This week caught a lot of people off guard (not this blog) and they have 3 days to decide if they will take advantage of it.
Market internals are somewhat a result of how “mechanical” the market has become. Computers determining outcome.
[UPDATE 15:08 EST] Looks like the market is determined to inflict as much pain on bears as possible. Squiggle count updated. The 1.618 Fib target resides at 4152 on the SPX.
[UPDATE 12:30 EST] IF this is nearing the top of (iii), then expect some afternoon weakness. An ideal retrace for (iv) is the gap area from this morning.
[UPDATE 12:11 EST] The Wilshire 5000 has reached a perfect wave (iii) = 1.618 times the length of wave (i). We may have reached the top of wave (iii).
[UPDATE 12:05 EST] I added a Fibonacci grid to show where wave (iii) is 1.618 times the length of wave (i) and that is at about 4152 SPX.
[UPDATE 12:02 EST]
Total retrace and target area of Minor 2 in the SPX. Basically a challenge to its 50 DMA
[UPDATE 11:55 EST] When is it appropriate to make a 1-minute squiggle SPX chart? When it has moved 300+ handles in the span of 5 days…
[UPDATE 11:38 EST] Updated SPX chart. The best count has us looking for the top of Minuette (iii).
I made a nice SPX 5-minute chart to track wave ratio relationship targets of the proposed Minor wave 2 expanded flat count. Best guess squiggle count below. We can adjust as more waves unfolds. Keep an eye on the wave relationship target for wave (iii) of [c] of 2.
Today was the strongest market internal up day in the last 10 days. Without yet seeing today’s NYSE “breadth thrust” data, the market had a very good follow through today. I’ll have the official data later tonight.
The preferred count remains intact: Minor 2 of Intermediate wave (3).
Here is an S&P 500 chart matching the same count as the Wilshire 5000 with the Minor 2 wave target range shown. The range is 4185 – 4233 SPX> The lower end of the range is some 2.7% + higher still.
The GDOW is forming a nice A-B-C rally. Note the heavy horizontal resistance. This, in theory, should be difficult to overcome. And thus, the count in that it will not be overcome.
Big “risk – on” again. Junk is soaring. But it was due for a violent bounce.
And finally, amazingly considering the market may have just experienced a significant “breadth thrust” event, the most bearish count is technically still not violated. It just goes to show you how deep the selloff has actually been so far overall.
The preferred wave count is Minor 2 of Intermediate (3). This would take the form of an expanded flat count. I copied an explanatory note of typical expanded flat price targets as per Elliott Wave Principle (Frost/Prechter) on the daily chart. This price target coincides nicely with a meeting of the Wilshire 5000’s 50 Daily Moving Average.
Additionally, it would likely take the form of a “backtest” of a significant channel line support as shown on the weekly.
Market internals have been strongly positive, and we have not seen any follow through bearish readings. You can see this on the 30-minute (second chart below) Wilshire 5000 NYSE internal histograms provided at the bottom of the chart.
The daily chart has a positive diverging RSI which suggests prices will go above [a] of 2. This was a similar setup with Intermediate wave (2) going above 4 of (1) peak price. Additionally, the daily has just had an MACD crossover suggesting at least a short-term change of trend, at least until the positive diverging RSI plays out fully.
From a long-term perspective, this count is very satisfying as Minor 1 is longer in length than the next higher degree Intermediate (1). Of course, if the count is correct, this indicates a tremendous bear market in both size and time is coming after this Minor wave 2 correction plays out.
Typically, Minor 2 should overlap Intermediate (1) in price. The Minor 2 target lines satisfy this.
Note that total volume is subdued and supports the notion that prices are correcting the larger down trend, and not necessarily indicative of a market “bottom”.
The preferred squiggle count of the Wilshire 5000. This count at the moment meets as many Elliott Wave rules and guidelines as possible.
Ok, now let’s look at the flipside, the most bearish count. If we keep things simple, despite the rally today on weak overall volume, the general principle of a series of “ones and twos” stacking up to the downside has not been broken just yet.
Again, I think this is a very dangerous market. The world is on the verge of expanding global war, supply lines are crippled (on purpose), more lockdowns are coming, inflation is destroying wealth, social mood continues to deteriorate, and the global NWO Satanists are openly committed to conducting warfare in various forms on their own citizens. Just look at what is happening in China for instance. Or the baby formula shortage here in the U.S.
So sometimes it is just good to keep things simple. And until the simplicity of this chart is nullified outright, you keep it front and center.
It will not surprise me at all if I wake up one of these mornings and overnight futures are at limit down.
I narrowed down the preferred wave count variations from last night to just two: the Minor 2 expanded flat variation #1 as shown below. I have no dog in this fight. The market is just going to keep frustrating the most possible people it seems
And variation #2 still holds to a more immediate bearish outlook:
The squiggle count shows both variations on one chart. The Minor 2 variation of an expanded flat would call for a rally in price at least above the pivot shown by the blue arrow.
Shanghai.
CPCE. Yesterday’s data.
One would think silver would eventually pop higher.
Another “gaffe” by President Poopypants? Not hardly. As I have been saying, Satanists are required to admit the truth at some point. These are the rules of the game. Satan requires it. All these “walkbacks” over the past few months are really just glimpses of truth.
It’s just like “predictive programming”. There is nothing “predictive” about it other than a brief admission of truth to the masses. And then when I blog about it, the Satanists will point to me as the “crazy” one. That’s how the game works. But I am grounded in bible truth. Good old Baptist bible-believing non-dispensational, truth.
The “pivot” to, and agitation of China is slowly unfolding. Remember, I am predicting expanding global war by this September. Global war instigated by the Satanists in charge the world over. To create a “Ukraine of the Pacific”. This is the attempt to assemble the New World Order to be run by the Antichrist and 3 key nations stand in the way; Russia and China being the obvious first two. The 3rd is yet to be determined although I’m hedging my bets that ultimately it will be Israel to fulfill bible prophecy.
Does this mean that Russia and China are “righteous”? Of course not, they are run by unsaved wicked men also. This makes Satan’s job easy at this stage. He has control of all the wicked leaders running the globe and he puts evil into the hearts of men to start wars and do evil. All the wicked men and women running all the worldwide institutions, at least the ones that matter. And if they are not outright Satanists, they are merely “useful idiot” reprobates that reject Jesus Christ nonetheless and are being used by Satan for his end times goals.
And what is Satan’s end time goal? Well, the bible tells usplainly: A one world government to control all. A one-world religion that demands worship of the Dragon and the Beast (Satan and the Antichrist) and to weed out the “righteous”, those saved to Jesus Christ. This is achieved by implementation of a one-world currency we all have heard of: the mark of the beast. This will ensure the Devil takes the maximum number of souls to Hell with him as possible. Because even Satan knows Jesus wins in the end.
To sum up Satan’s goal is this: to eternally damn to Hell the most souls as possible at the end of the world as we know it. And the bible tells us he will achieve a lot of success in doing this.
Satan wins temporarily, the bible foretells this. There WILL be a New World Order. There WILL be an Abominations of Desolations. There WILL be a world-wide persecution of Christians unlike the world has ever seen after the mark of the beast is implemented. The Antichrist DOES overcome the Christians and rules for 42 months in power on this earth over the unsaved.
The good news is that Christians DO get physically saved (First Resurrection/Rapture event on the Day of the Lord) about 70 – 75 days after the Antichrist begins his worldwide pogrom of persecuting the truly saved bible-believing Christians. However, some of us will be Martyr’d for the cause of Christ. No worries, you’ll receive a BETTER resurrection when the day comes.
How to escape this fate of eternal damnation? Watch this short video and you can be saved in 15 minutes or less and get a permanent ticket to heaven. It only requires believing and accept and trust in Jesus alone as your savior. But first you need to HEAR the gospel to be saved. Yes, you can be saved by watching a video online as long as you hear, believe, trust, pray, and ask Jesus to save you.
This one is 12 minutes. Of course, speak a prayer of salvation at the end of the video. Call on the name of the Lord!
Today’s price action was about what I expected. A fulfillment of a Minuette pink wave (ii) expanded flat.
However, there exists 3 variations of overall preferred counts at the moment, 2 are bullish, the last is very bearish. We have reached a key spot in the overall wave structure that will help us determine the overall count going forward based on what the market does over the next few days/week.
VARIATION #1
This seems the most likely scenario as of this writing. This is a “medium” price and time rally that completes a Minor wave 2 expanded flat.
VARIATION #2
This is just a bigger retrace in both price and time. A bigger version of variation #1 above.
VARIATION #3
This is the count that maintains that we are in a series of “ones” and “twos” down and that the market is on the verge of plunging much, much lower – in true panic – in what is known as the “third of a third” wave. But as you can see, this bearish price action needs to occur almost immediately for this count.
Each smaller degree wave “two” rally ideally is smaller in size, price and time as compared the previous next higher degree wave two. In other words, Intermediate (red) wave (2) is the biggest corrective. Minor (blue) 2 is the next biggest. Minute (green) [ii] is smaller than Minor 2, and Minuette (pink) (ii) is even smaller still. The perfect bearish setup.
Additionally, the “purpose” of each wave degree “one” is to advance prices lower than the previous higher degree wave one. So Minor 1 is lower in price than (1). Minute [i] is lower in price than 1. Minuette (i) is lower still. Again, a most ideal bearish wave structure “setup”.
Therefore, as you can see by all the criteria above, the “ideal” wave structure is “in place” for the perfect bearish setup next phase: an outright panic plunge in the market. The “third of a third” wave DOWN.
This is what makes it a very valid count and a dangerous one for bulls. Everyone is expecting lower prices, yet everyone is expecting a rip-your-face rally. So, the market will do whatever is the most painful to the most people. We’ll find out what that is.
This is truly the spot where Lucy has the football “teed” up and Charlie Brown is ready to kick it. Sometimes overnight futures will determine the situation one way or another. And so, we will see.
Other charts and potential counts:
Some of our other charts seem to support the idea of a continued rally. If the market is to rally furiously, this is a simple way of looking at it. Another “backtest” of a broken Fib fan line.
If we get a final violent rally, this would be the place where it occurs. We have reached a spot in the count that presents divergent options.
So, we’ll break down the 3 likely scenarios:
First option: Presenting the most bearish count. It is just a straight-up Intermediate (1)-(2), Minor 1-2, Minute [i]-[ii], Minuette (i)-(ii), Subminuette i-ii count. Therefore, we are literally approaching the point in the market where it rips apart in a fantastic selling cascade of several thousand DOW points, etc.
So, this is where Lucy is holding the football…..
Second option: Here is the count if a violent, upward, multi-day rally occurs it would probably be labeled Minor 2 as I suggested a few days back except in the form of an expanded flat. It is shown as the “alt” count below. Prices would likely overlap slightly with Intermediate red (1).
Third Option: The third option is just a slight variation on the most bearish first option. Slight pop forming a wave (ii) peak and then it falls apart and selling intensifies.
I actually like this option best. It seems every pop is being heavily sold into.
Well, after one day of contemplating a downward market pause of more than a few days, today’s price action and wave structures quickly jumped me back on the exact squiggle count that I have been going with for the last few months. As I said before, trying to guess the biggest bounces in an Intermediate wave (3) down is a fool’s game.
Regardless, it doesn’t matter. This blog is not a “day trader” blog, this blog is nowall about the end of the world as we know it and teaching and preaching about it according to the bible, The King James bible only. And a 200-point SPX bounce would never change that underlying belief. Neither would a 500-point bounce for that matter!
Yet I do believe the collapsing social mood as reflected in stock market price levels are a clue to us. As is the deadly “vaccine” campaign and the Ukraine/Russia war and the possible rise of the REAL Antichrist – Zelenskyy.
So, we will keep going with what makes the most sense: That the market is impulsing down in 5 waves in both large structures and small and thus let’s just keep counting it for what it is showing.
Today we confirmed that yesterday’s high was a 3 wave move making it corrective to the downward impulsive trend.
Again, the long-term view is that the market will collapse to (3).
The truly amazing thing is that real economic hardship is upon us already yet look at the market on the monthly. Have we really collapsed to anything of ruin just yet? My take is that we will collapse all the way beneath wave IV – a cycle-sized wave – and then we can talk. We are just getting started folks.
CPCE perfectly positioned. Not yet even a sniff of true panic and collapse just yet.
This is the main chart that caught my eye today/ Transports finally collapsed beneath long term support and confirming in full “DOW THEORY” in that it is following the Industrial average into a bear market, which by just breaking under today, is by definition just getting started.
I don’t have a count for Junk. The trend is what is important. New lows today is what matters particularly since it has been a leading market indicator,
UPDATE: There appears to be a nice 5 wave impulse structure down. These moves are big it’s like “50,60 handles here, 90 – 100 handles there…”. Maybe we get a small bounce.
Increasing internals have surpassed yesterday at least on the NYSE. The move up to yesterday’s peak is now clearly a 3 wave move which confirms it as corrective. The DOW transports have broken through long term support to confirm with the Industrials a bear market DOW theory.
