Elliott Wave Update ~ 29 Sep 2022

The Wilshire 5000 finally also dipped beneath the June lows. The best guess count is today could be the Minute [iii] low. Yesterday’s 90% up day was an “e” wave of an expanding triangle. “E” waves make one feels as though a reversal is happening but then prices reverse yet again and make a new low which is exactly what happened. I missed the potential “e” wave partially because Stock charts regularly – for whatever reason – ruins the Wilshire chart to where you have to “mask” the glitch price moves in order to count waves properly.

And it could be that again, I am shortchanging Minute [iii] low and it hasn’t happened yet.

The SPX presents the best view at the moment and the expanding triangle count that faked everyone out yesterday including me. But I have been warning, it’s best not to assume wave bounces in a nasty bear market. Even though yesterday was a very solid market internal day, the overnight futures were easily manipulated into opening a megagap lower. So, the “conviction” to buying this market is still not there for more than a day bounce, at least for now.

Again, we can label today as Minute [iii] price low, but it would look better if it finished a bit lower, bounce hard in Minute [iv], and then bleed much lower in finishing Minor 1 of (3) down.

This market is very volatile day in and day out. The very volatility is bearish, and any bounce is considered an opportunity to “get out”.

Dollar met the upper trendline as was suggested a few weeks or so ago.

China breaking down? That very long term trendline is key. Of course, if this is the end of the world as we know it, it’s going to break under sooner rather than later. And then once Pooh Bear is “elected” dictator for life next month, he attacks Taiwan.

Late October/November is the best weather window for a cross-strait invasion. Otherwise, they have to wait another whole year in my humble opinion. I think it comes this year. They are itching to fight, and Biden is at his most vulnerable as he barely knows what day it is. Are we living in the Twilight Zone or what?

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And here is the simple eternal gospel: