Allow me to present the top alternate count first as that is the most interesting count for now. This count is interesting because the proposed wave [b] of 2 is practically fully developed. Therefore, we can quickly abandon this count if the market continues to immediately impulse lower thereby continuing to form Minor 3 down.
Today’s gap down was just ridiculously huge, and the market has a way of closing the gaps sooner rather than later particularly if the trend has truly changed to down. This is the best bear count overall that closes the gap. This would be a market-chasing massive shakeout. Squeezing the weak bears and making the nervous bulls chase. And then when the weak bears have sold and the BTFD’ers have exhausted at the peak of Minor 2, then all true hell breaks loose, and the market is frozen in fear. Minor 3 down commences. Interesting scenario so I present this first.
Of course, it’s easy to outsmart yourself. The straightforward bear count is what it is.
It looks good from 10,000 feet.
And from 100,000 feet.
The Composite nearly in a bear market after nearly peaking for the 3rd time in a row only 3 months ago. And that’s saying something. Making an all-time high in December, coming close again in January and again in February. It’s not like the market hadn’t been exerting a ton of effort. Exhaustion.
I don’t have today’s CPCE data, but really the market is still betting heavily to go up in the options market. Not a whole lot of panic out there despite the VIX closing finally over 30. When we see some of these moving averages climb nearer the panic line, then we can take note. It’ll take a continuing collapsing market for that to happen.
