How much will the Fed cut? My prediction is a 1/2 point cut to take the rate window down to 3.75 – 4.00%. This will come as a “shock” to the market because overall consensus is only a 1/4-point cut. But the 3- and 6-month yields have already moved beneath into the next window. So that’s the call. And Trump will like Powell again and call him a genius. Seems fitting.
My best attempt at a count at the moment. Two numbers that seem inevitably will be reached is the two numbers I mentioned in my last update 3 weeks ago.
DOW 46,368 (24th number in the Fibonacci sequence)
SPX 6660.00 (The SPX’s low in 2010 was 666.79. Seems fitting it will make this 10x multiple.)
