The Santa rally indeed. The S&P 500 came within a few points from another all-time high. The Wilshire’s pattern is intact with a perfect hit on the parallel upper line.
Again, if this is a “thrust” out of a long-winded triangle expect to see new all-time highs in 2022 or sooner. We can draw this pattern on every index we track.
What a schizophrenic market. It was a very strong up day internally. The Wilshire primary count has a wave [ii] flat count since we had clearly 3 waves down since pink (a).
The possible long-term alternate is that the market has triangulated in an effort to get higher yet again and this would take us well into the new year. I could make this pattern on almost every index including the DOW. The last few down days would have been the “head fake” “E” wave and today was the beginning of the “thrust” upwards. It will require follow-through so tomorrow will be interesting.
The good thing for the bears is if the market makes a new all-time high again, it should be short-lived as a thrust out of a very long-winded running triangle would be exhaustive at the end.
We are looking for an overall impulse 5 wave pattern down to indicate a change in trend. There is obviously a long way to go for that no matter how you count the squiggles.
The market is very fractured at the moment. New all-time high in the S&P 500 mini futures pre-market this morning. The SPX couldn’t match it and came within 12 points of another all-time high. Yet other indexes are seriously lagging (or leading). The SPX’s close twin, the Wilshire 5000 is quite diverging from the S&P. In fact, the Wilshire finished less than 50% retrace from its all-time high to its recent pivot low.
And the NADAQ Composite is some 6 1/2% from it’s intraday high last month.
The NYSE. If major support were to break, we would have confirmation the top is probably in.
COMMENTARY
I know it’s been a while since I wrote commentary, but nothing has changed. I still think we may have started the Daniel’s 70th week this past September 2021. The next biblical event would be a world at war which has clearly not happened. Yet in Daniel’s 70th week, warfare doesn’t come until the second seal is opened and the estimated time for that is June 2022.
I mean how many stories like this are we going to see where a hospital denies a dying person simple ivermectin and a judge has to get involved? The evilness is growing. The vaccines push has somewhat “paused” due to a lot of judgements against the government, yet the Supreme Court has ruled every time for the Pharma Pigs so far. Eventually all these cases will funnel up to the court.
Worldwide evil abounds. Satan has been cast down to earth and we await the Antichrist at the second seal opening.
The market is at a key junction. If it is to continue rallying, look for a top in the Spring 2022. Yet the Wilshire is not anywhere near its top at the moment.
The DJIA is a key index at the moment.
As is the NYSE.
Apple nearing a long term trendline.
Until the lower channel breaks, the trend is still up.
Top long term alternate is that prices run up through Spring 2022. In this case, I’m still looking for further pullback though for (4).
The best counts at the moment are the DJIA and the NYSE.
Craziest stair-stepping I have ever seen. I have no clue on the squiggle count.
Dow is a little clearer.
The Wilshire 5000 topped out first weeks ago. Followed by the DJIA. Then the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite (and Nasdaq 100) topped on the same day later in this month. Its unusual that the Wilshire 5000 and its close cousin the S&P 500 have such a wide time range (over 2 weeks) of topping. This supports the idea that a major turn is in order.
The NYSE and DJIA probably have the overall clearest wave counts since the 2020 low. Note the alternate counts on both. Prices today broke beneath the lower channel line. The NYSE is in log scale, the DJIA is arithmetic scale.
Best guess squiggle count giving the market the benefit of the doubt to recover next week in a small wave (ii). The squiggle count below shows a slightly truncated top because it counts as 5 waves from (iv) to (v).
And note the total market has landed at near term support. It’ll take a decisive break of this to further the bearish cause.
