An example of bull market arrogance. Everyone wants to know if the bear market is “over” or if there is another “technical” price dip to test some magical support line. Or whatever. The entire thing is predicated on “the market always goes up”.
There is a complete disconnect with reality. The ironic part is that Elliott Wave theory has always taught that stock prices move not on any external event, but rather on social mood waves of either expanding good mood or contracting bad mood. Today’s market has again discounted valid EW theory and have embraced “market flow” theory. Or FOMO (fear of missing out).
How about fear of being trapped? Hardly. But that is where the market is eventually heading.
So, have stocks “bottomed”? That is not the relevant question. The relevant question is: Is the world ending as we know it?
Yes, it is, and stock prices will eventually reflect that reality.
Why stop there? Why not a couple of more huge gap up openings? The squiggle count surely supports the notion.
Not yet at the 50% retrace spot.
Zero hedge declared the NASDAQ Composite is now in a bull market being above 20% from the low. The dichotomy is amusing as it is still a bit more than 20% from the highs. Both a bull and bear market all at the same time.
Yesterday’s CPCE data. 1.75 calls for every 1 put. This is of course deemed “normal”, but is it? Is it not a reflection of an extremely overleveraged market?
At the very least, to claim that people are still “too bearish” does not reflect in the actual data of what they do. Which is bullishness all the time, every time. Despite a 35% pullback in the Composite, there never was any real panic to speak of.
Primary count is that Minute [iv] is finally finishing up for good. Any price break of Minute [i] peak would be very bearish and indicate this wave structure as labeled is finished.
NYSE still struggling to get above things and make a move. This was predicted because of the previous negative Zweig Breadth thrust event as outlined by the red arrow down. I am very fascinated if this extremely bearish event will hold true in the long run. 8 days so far struggling with the 38.2% Fib retrace line.
NYSE poke above and beaten down. I still have respect in the negative Zweig breadth thrust event that had previously occurred at these levels. It can be postulated that this negative rush out of stocks at these prices (see red arrow down) is still in effect sentiment-wise.
Today was a thrust out of our proposed triangle giving us enough waves in place to consider the count complete. However, if not presenting the squiggle count:
Everything has been choppy a-b-c “threes” even in the positive direction. It has an ending diagonal triangle “feel” about things.
Yet for a wave (2), the overall market has yet to rally to its 50% Fib retrace. Sentiment is starting to get perky bullish a bit again. More advances will strengthen this sentiment.
Best count has the market either finishing Minute [iv] already or about to early next week in some kind of running (b) wave contracting triangle. There are enough waves in place to consider the count complete.
Could be as simple as a rally to the lines near the 50 weekly moving average. 15 – 22 Aug time frame.
It is always preferable to see a visible Intermediate (2) on the monthly. Gives confidence to the overall count.
Junk curiously couldn’t close its gap down today.
9-month trendline on the VIX broke under today and even closed under. “All is well.”
The Wilshire 5000 is in a tighter and tighter contracting triangle pattern where even wave (e) makes its own mini triangle. It can also be viewed as a bearish head and shoulder pattern. We shall see, we probably won’t have an answer until next week.
The primary count is Minute wave [iv] because we do not have a 5-wave structure down from peak.
UPDATE:
The top squiggle count may be unfolding:
UPDATE:
Interesting thing of note by Zero Hedge in that the number of people holding 2 jobs is at an all-time high. Here are my off-the-cuff observations of what is going on in the US labor market at the moment in no particular order:
1) The overall economy has yet to truly contract via bankruptcies and voluntary closures. This is a reflection of sentiment refusing to “let go” of the old bull market business cycle. Businesses remain intact by taking on more and more debt. And that was of course very easily done with interest rates, of even junk debt, at all-time lows for quite a length of time. But that dynamic is changing as short-term rates have shot up quicker than anyone imagined.
2) As far as the labor market, people need 2 jobs to survive this inflationary environment. And the businesses struggling to stay alive are paying for that labor. Overall customer service has taken quite a hit as a result. No longer is the customer always pandered to. Except the uber rich of course.
3) The covid “vaccine” has taken an obvious toll on people. Excess deaths and serious injuries as a result of the vaccine of prime working age people are evident everywhere that reflects both in hard statistics and anecdotally. With businesses trying to stay afloat, many in serious debt, and labor in short supply due to vaccine injuries and death, we have a serious divergence occurring. Eventually this serious divergence will resolve itself with businesses closing due to bankruptcy or lack of experienced, reliable labor.
4) Today’s youth – what is it gen Z? (I lost track) are not equipped for the vigors of the working life. There are millions of young 20-year old’s whose brains have been permanently injured by SSRIs such as Prozac. They forever live with their aging parents (many who now work 2 jobs) living an unproductive life relying on government handouts. Even the ones who have dutifully gone to college are overloaded with massive student loan debt and have started life in the hole. Thus, the entire Ponzi system is primed for collapse.
5) So, there is not up and coming generation to rescue Babylon USA. The birth rate is plunging. We are a dying empire and aging baby-boomer septuagenarians, and octogenarians know that their time is running out on the dream of the New World Order. They hate Jesus Christ and why would they care if they wreck the world? That was the plan all along.
In conclusion, it has all been supported by going against God and piling up massive Ponzi scheme debt to support it all. Having sucked every last soul on earth into the global system, the power-in-charge are in perfect position to pull the rug out and let it all collapse. This will be done by purposeful warfare resulting in global financial collapse. And global collapse will result in great famines occurring.
The bible promises it. God promises the end will not be a utopia, quite the opposite. The end will be a 7th Babylon New World Order, a one world religion not based on Jesus Christ, but of the Antichrist and the Devil, and a one world currency (mark of the beast) to weed out and kill the people that are hated the most: bible-believing Christians.
The fake Christians, all the ones who teach a “repent of sins” “works” based salvation (which is most denominations) – who are not saved – many will take the mark including a plethora of Catholics, Orthodox, Protestants, all Mormons and other such cults. Even a lot of unsaved Baptists. And make no mistake, the bible clearly teaches that taking the mark damns you to hell.
UPDATE:
The NYSE. This backs up the idea that Minute [iv] has occurred or is occurring. The “Big Board” index is diverging from the overall market.
Today’s low is actually a critical level for the continuing bull count of Intermediate (2)
UPDATE:
The VIX trendline is most interesting. It is under assault and if the trendline breaks down, the SPX will likely eventually reach SPX 4300 area and the still open gap at the top of the previous wave [iv] of 3 of (1).
UPDATE:
A couple of other squiggle options I’m looking at. It really is just parsing things to the “nth” degree which is half the fun of counting waves. The main idea is that Minute [iv] is in here somewhere….
We are at a good potential identifying spot in the wave structure. Futures indicate a hard open down, and this could be the final wave of Minute [iv] of wave C of (2).
So, this assumes today’s open will eventually bottom, perhaps even at the end of day, and a subsequent wave [v] rally will occur either starting today or next week.
The “key” wave marker is the price point of [i] of C of (2). Pricesshould not breachthat peak if this count is correct. If they do, it is a bearish development.
A more detailed look at the squiggles. The entire pattern takes on the form of a sort of expanding triangle. However, I have it labeled here as an expanded 3-3-5 count.
Babylon USA keeps poking the Chinese Pooh-Bear in the eye. But that was the intent all along. Just like we poked the Russian bear until it reacted. It will not be any different with the Chinese. Eventually they will respond with war sooner rather than later. The deteriorating social mood trends of the last many years predicts it.
Ok, let’s put aside end times theology and bible prophecy for just a minute and look at things through the “lens” of social mood wave theory. The “true” social mood peak was in the year 2000. The biggest wave degrees – Millennial, Grand Supercycle, Supercycle peaked and have “rolled over” for some 22 years now.
It’s been quite a while since I have shown this chart. This is my representation of the hierarchy of social mood waves and its overall effect. The biggest waves at Grand Supercycle degree have been rolling over for some 22 years and counting. And each lesser wave degree has also rolled over in mood. This explains why the 1990’s were truly an ascension of overall social mood peaking at about the year 2000. But even then, the 2007 rebound was certainly better than what is going on today.
Today there is nothing but negative mood “rot” underneath. And eventually once every wave degree rolls over and they all align in agreement to the negative, the collapse will be historic. Cannot you feel what’s happening underneath??
There are enough waves in place to consider the count “complete”. I may be saying this over the course of the next 2 weeks if we continue to melt up on summer light volume with no cares in the world.
August is the final month of peace in this world. And yet tell that to the Ukrainians and Russians they will severely disagree. Or for that matter any of the other various small wars going on in the world at the moment.
One such possible count:
NYSE still diverging just as I suggested. I am still “betting” (although I have no dog in this market) that the 10-day negative “event” outweighs anything the market is attempting to overcome at the moment. We shall see!
It is actually “ideal” that Minor 2 overlaps Intermediate (1) in the wave count on the NASDAQ Composite. That is what it is supposed to do which is one reason why the Composite is an outlier at the moment. As compared to the NYSE above, it is not a broad-based rally by far. It is a squeeze on the most beat up index – the Composite – and the rally reflects as much.
UPDATE: I forgot to post this. Probably the easiest chart will tell the eventual picture.
All the videos I have seen today it appears China is preparing to invade Taiwan under the guise of “military” exercises. They are deploying their forces to attack positions and curiously all western intelligence seems to be saying it’s just an intimidation tactic. We gave them a reason to move their forces into attack position without alerting the media as compared to the media blowing the horn on the Ukraine war.
We actually gave them the “excuse” to move into attack positions is it not obvious?
World braces for response? That is admitting that what we did deserves response and thus China has been given a free pass to move their attack forces into position to attack. Pelosi’s trip actually gave them cover to do so!
And if they do not immediately attack, the buildup of forces over the next few weeks will be a curiosity for sure. Will the media report as fervently as on Ukraine?
But Dan, you’re not making sense! Oh? Well, just suppose there was no “provocation” by Babylon USA, and we see a buildup of forces, what would the media be saying? Would we be getting honest reporting?
But now, we have given them a “valid” excuse to build up their attack forces and put them into a position to do just that. We gave them media cover!
The usual commenters (almost all non-Christians) at Zero Hedge “upvoted” the most popular post today saying it was “all bluff” 334 to 80. I’ll take the contrarian play on that! Zero Hedge commenters, although astute in observations of many things in this world, refused to admit that Russia was going to invade Ukraine. They blame everything on the “MIC” (military industrial complex). But they are just as short-sighted as the rest of the world and why? Because very few are actually bible believing Christians that‘s why!
But when one views all this through the lens of bible prophecy it all makes sense. Global war is being fomented by the dark forces of Satan who, in effect, has the Ring of Power and controls them all. He is putting it into the world leaders’ hearts to go to war. To start a global war to tear down the rotting old system so they can build up the New World Order.
Is Xi and Biden in on it? Does it matter? Most readers would probably agree the regime in power of the USA is purposely destroying the country from within for the purposes of Klaus Schwab and the NWO. So why is it so hard to think that Putin and XI are not doing the same to their countries? Subduing their populations and militaries from within. But again, does it matter if Satan is in control anyway?
Regardless, Satan controls them all you can be sure. The world leaders are almost to the last one possessed of high-level demons putting it into their hearts to start wars just as the bible prophesizes will occur in the end times. Matthew 24:
6 And ye shall hear of wars and rumours of wars: see that ye be not troubled: for all these things must come to pass, but the end is not yet.
7 For nation shall rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom: and there shall be famines, and pestilences, and earthquakes, in divers places.
8 All these are the beginning of sorrows.
I have proposed we have started the beginning of sorrows. Wars and certainly rumors of wars is rampant. Soon to be famine (2023), pestilences, and I wonder when the earthquakes in diverse places will begin.
That is my take. When commenters vote 334 – 80 that it is all “bluff” then I’ll take the other side of that bet this time around.
And any kind of war action will not be bullish. China/Taiwan ARE the world markets as concerning all things manufactured on a global scale. Even a “dust-up” that interrupts the markets in any significant way is a death blow for the financial Ponzi scheme that is just waiting to be popped.
Waking up with “down limit” is a predicted event to happen of wave 3 of (3) down. So even if the market hangs around for some more “cheap gains”, the forces of evil have been unleashed on this world. Xi will not back down.
THE COUNTS
The (1) – (2), 1 – 2, [i] – [ii] count is still actually valid on the Wilshire 5000 as long as “2” is not breached in price.
The DJIA is sufficiently labeled as (2). And we are back at the very spot where the previous “breakaway” gap occurred. Will it happen again?
10 Year yield, wave (4) peak?
Best count for the COMP for now:
We have a very plausible count on the Wilshire labeled as a double zigzag.
Again, I am giving a lot of respect for the “negative” Zweig Breadth Thrust” which is still in effect. The NYSE hasn’t made another new high over the last 2 sessions. Diverging.
If the overall market hangs out for another week or so, this is the best count. Wave C would be either 1.5 or 1.618 times the length of wave A.
VIX uptrend line. It means something, at least until it doesn’t.
There is no “contrarian” play for strong rumors of war. Ukraine proved that. Actually, every conflict in the last 100 years proved that. Germany was rumored to be on a war footing in 1938/1939 and of course they did it.
If China says they will attack, I can believe that they will. Good luck with your “longs”.
Of course, I have been predicting global war for over a year now, and everything seems on track. The Taiwan strait is not a good time to cross, Sep/Oct is a good time.
