Daneric's Elliott Waves

Babylon USA keeps poking the Chinese Pooh-Bear in the eye. But that was the intent all along. Just like we poked the Russian bear until it reacted. It will not be any different with the Chinese. Eventually they will respond with war sooner rather than later. The deteriorating social mood trends of the last many years predicts it.

As Taiwan Warns Chinese “Maritime & Aerial Blockade” Ensuing, Pelosi Says Real Issue Is ‘I’m A Woman’ | ZeroHedge

Ok, let’s put aside end times theology and bible prophecy for just a minute and look at things through the “lens” of social mood wave theory. The “true” social mood peak was in the year 2000. The biggest wave degrees – Millennial, Grand Supercycle, Supercycle peaked and have “rolled over” for some 22 years now.

It’s been quite a while since I have shown this chart. This is my representation of the hierarchy of social mood waves and its overall effect. The biggest waves at Grand Supercycle degree have been rolling over for some 22 years and counting. And each lesser wave degree has also rolled over in mood. This explains why the 1990’s were truly an ascension of overall social mood peaking at about the year 2000. But even then, the 2007 rebound was certainly better than what is going on today.

Today there is nothing but negative mood “rot” underneath. And eventually once every wave degree rolls over and they all align in agreement to the negative, the collapse will be historic. Cannot you feel what’s happening underneath??

There are enough waves in place to consider the count “complete”. I may be saying this over the course of the next 2 weeks if we continue to melt up on summer light volume with no cares in the world.

August is the final month of peace in this world. And yet tell that to the Ukrainians and Russians they will severely disagree. Or for that matter any of the other various small wars going on in the world at the moment.

One such possible count:

NYSE still diverging just as I suggested. I am still “betting” (although I have no dog in this market) that the 10-day negative “event” outweighs anything the market is attempting to overcome at the moment. We shall see!

It is actually “ideal” that Minor 2 overlaps Intermediate (1) in the wave count on the NASDAQ Composite. That is what it is supposed to do which is one reason why the Composite is an outlier at the moment. As compared to the NYSE above, it is not a broad-based rally by far. It is a squeeze on the most beat up index – the Composite – and the rally reflects as much.

UPDATE: I forgot to post this. Probably the easiest chart will tell the eventual picture.

All the videos I have seen today it appears China is preparing to invade Taiwan under the guise of “military” exercises. They are deploying their forces to attack positions and curiously all western intelligence seems to be saying it’s just an intimidation tactic. We gave them a reason to move their forces into attack position without alerting the media as compared to the media blowing the horn on the Ukraine war.

We actually gave them the “excuse” to move into attack positions is it not obvious?

World braces for response? That is admitting that what we did deserves response and thus China has been given a free pass to move their attack forces into position to attack. Pelosi’s trip actually gave them cover to do so!

And if they do not immediately attack, the buildup of forces over the next few weeks will be a curiosity for sure. Will the media report as fervently as on Ukraine?

But Dan, you’re not making sense! Oh? Well, just suppose there was no “provocation” by Babylon USA, and we see a buildup of forces, what would the media be saying? Would we be getting honest reporting?

But now, we have given them a “valid” excuse to build up their attack forces and put them into a position to do just that. We gave them media cover!

The usual commenters (almost all non-Christians) at Zero Hedge “upvoted” the most popular post today saying it was “all bluff” 334 to 80. I’ll take the contrarian play on that! Zero Hedge commenters, although astute in observations of many things in this world, refused to admit that Russia was going to invade Ukraine. They blame everything on the “MIC” (military industrial complex). But they are just as short-sighted as the rest of the world and why? Because very few are actually bible believing Christians that‘s why!

But when one views all this through the lens of bible prophecy it all makes sense. Global war is being fomented by the dark forces of Satan who, in effect, has the Ring of Power and controls them all. He is putting it into the world leaders’ hearts to go to war. To start a global war to tear down the rotting old system so they can build up the New World Order.

Is Xi and Biden in on it? Does it matter? Most readers would probably agree the regime in power of the USA is purposely destroying the country from within for the purposes of Klaus Schwab and the NWO. So why is it so hard to think that Putin and XI are not doing the same to their countries? Subduing their populations and militaries from within. But again, does it matter if Satan is in control anyway?

Regardless, Satan controls them all you can be sure. The world leaders are almost to the last one possessed of high-level demons putting it into their hearts to start wars just as the bible prophesizes will occur in the end times. Matthew 24:

6 And ye shall hear of wars and rumours of wars: see that ye be not troubled: for all these things must come to pass, but the end is not yet.

7 For nation shall rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom: and there shall be famines, and pestilences, and earthquakes, in divers places.

8 All these are the beginning of sorrows.

I have proposed we have started the beginning of sorrows. Wars and certainly rumors of wars is rampant. Soon to be famine (2023), pestilences, and I wonder when the earthquakes in diverse places will begin.

That is my take. When commenters vote 334 – 80 that it is all “bluff” then I’ll take the other side of that bet this time around.

And any kind of war action will not be bullish. China/Taiwan ARE the world markets as concerning all things manufactured on a global scale. Even a “dust-up” that interrupts the markets in any significant way is a death blow for the financial Ponzi scheme that is just waiting to be popped.

Waking up with “down limit” is a predicted event to happen of wave 3 of (3) down. So even if the market hangs around for some more “cheap gains”, the forces of evil have been unleashed on this world. Xi will not back down.

THE COUNTS

The (1) – (2), 1 – 2, [i] – [ii] count is still actually valid on the Wilshire 5000 as long as “2” is not breached in price.

The DJIA is sufficiently labeled as (2). And we are back at the very spot where the previous “breakaway” gap occurred. Will it happen again?

10 Year yield, wave (4) peak?

Best count for the COMP for now:

We have a very plausible count on the Wilshire labeled as a double zigzag.

Again, I am giving a lot of respect for the “negative” Zweig Breadth Thrust” which is still in effect. The NYSE hasn’t made another new high over the last 2 sessions. Diverging.

If the overall market hangs out for another week or so, this is the best count. Wave C would be either 1.5 or 1.618 times the length of wave A.

VIX uptrend line. It means something, at least until it doesn’t.

There is no “contrarian” play for strong rumors of war. Ukraine proved that. Actually, every conflict in the last 100 years proved that. Germany was rumored to be on a war footing in 1938/1939 and of course they did it.

If China says they will attack, I can believe that they will. Good luck with your “longs”.

Of course, I have been predicting global war for over a year now, and everything seems on track. The Taiwan strait is not a good time to cross, Sep/Oct is a good time.

Before the world was, there was the Book of Life, and it contained every conceived soul ever to be conceived at the point of conception written in it. God wanted all to be saved. Jesus was the lamb slain for all at the foundation of the world.

Unborn souls who die in the womb, babies, and innocent young children go to heaven because they have not yet sinned. God judges them to be innocent. They have not yet come to the knowledge of good and evil.

When people come to the knowledge of good and evil, usually as a child at a young age, even so their names remain in the Book of Life.

If a person dies without Jesus, their names are blotted out of the Book of Life. Most of the world still have their names written in the Book of Life. The unsaved, but not yet reprobate.

Reprobates (those who reject God and thus are given up on by God) are blotted out of the Book of Life, twice dead spiritually. The walking damned. (Unfortunately, the world is run entirely by the twice dead, walking damned.)

Therefore, the bible teaches that only the twice dead reprobate children of the devil will be worshiping the beast in the end times.

And of course, the mark of the beast – worshiping the Antichrist – is the device and method in which people are given the choice:

1) Accept the mark, reject God and the gospel, worship the image and the beast and remain alive on earth. Receive the mark and retain the ability to buy and sell and live on earth.

2) Reject the mark, reject worshiping the image and the beast, and you will be killed.

The entire point of the mark of the beast system is designed to weed out and find true Christian believers and kill them. All saved Christians will be unable to take the mark whether they want to or not. In fact, it will be impossible for a saved Christian to take the mark of the beast even if they beg for it.

But the lesson is thus: Only reprobates will be worshiping the beast when the Antichrist declares himself to be God and the image is setup. Those that choose to take the mark and become reprobate will also worship the beast. However, at the start, those who worship the beast is a very, very small minority of the world, the twice dead reprobates.

The New World Order kingdom will indeed be weak.

THE COUNTS

Let’s look at the overall market through the lens of the NYSE which provides key internal market data points worth paying attention to. Specifically, “breadth thrust” events. This is where the market moves from below .40 to above .615 within a significant (least) amount of trading days indicating a major market change of direction. This indicator is built upon a comparison between advancing and declining shares. A move of 10 days or less (to include the start and end points) indicates a “Zweig Breadth Thrust” event (as some guy named “Zweig” invented the concept. It was a keen observation).

Now of course there will be a numerous people who email me saying I am wrong on key details, and they all know better, but they are missing the overall point of this analysis. And besides I am literally using Stockcharts built in indicator called “NYSE Breadth Thrust” so there ya go. Regardless, the analysis of what is happening overall is what is important in this context.

The market experienced a very significant upward breadth thrust “event” of only 12 days during what I called wave 2 of (3) which I had warned at the time was concerningly bullish and indicated the market wanted to perhaps change direction and go higher. I said it would take a “negative” event of more significance to “negate” the positive event. I was confident it would happen because the overall wave count at the time of (1) – (2), 1 – 2, suggested it was due for wave [i] of 3 of (3) down. And that event actually did immediately occur and was in fact historic in that it was only 10 days…a sort of “negative” Zweig Breadth thrust to the reverse.

And the market has paused and regrouped. On the NYSE prices even “tested” its mid-June low. And now over the last 2 days we have a pop over resistance finally and it’s off to the races to the next resistance. Yet the market has not had a significant breadth thrust positive “event” to accompany. On the contrary it has been in neutral territory for quite a while. Sentiment-wise sellers were exhausted and so were buyers. Now we have a flip toward buyers, but is it a strong flip? I say no.

In other words, the market has not had a positive thrust event to “wipe” out the significant 10-day negative event – it did not have mid-June “V” bottom bounce. Based on this fact, I propose the NYSE will NOT regain the 16,022-pivot high, no matter if we count this rally as Intermediate (2) or whatever.

(And the most obvious targets if all indexes would be all the down sloping 200 DMA’s. But this analysis is deeper than that!)

Therefore, with all that in mind, we have our overall count based on if the market keeps rallying or not. If it does, we can confidently call it Intermediate wave (2) instead of a series of (1) – (2), 1 – 2, [i] – [ii].

But my proposed overall analysis is that the market will severely flush down again based on the negative Zweig Breadth event still being “intact” and therefore “in effect”. A hidden sore spot to traders. In other words, the big players are waiting to unload billions upon further price moves (or even starting right here) up based on the pre-existing sentiment is THAT THEY WANT OUT at these price levels.

Prices have entered into the candles where the negative Zweig event occurred. If the previous “I want out at this price” still exists (as proof of the negative event occurring at these levels), that sentiment, since it has not been “negated” by a positive event, still exists at these price levels.

Now all this to say, perhaps I’m just blustering on about simple price support and resistance. But in this case, this resistance is accompanied by “evidence” of an overwhelming sentiment to get out of the market based on a historic “negative thrust event” price change still in effect. Ok I am probably beating a dead horse by now, but that is how I am viewing this market.

It is one thing to say that there is resistance here and could bring out sellers, it is another to say there is historic resistance and evidence that the big money is about to unload on retail once again.

Again, I am only using the NYSE for this analysis because that is what the indicator data relates to. So, we could still in fact be in wave [ii] of 3 of (3) if prices unload immediately. Otherwise, wave (2) makes more sense even if the previous pivot @16,022 is never regained which is my prediction.

Wilshire 5000 can still be called a Minute [ii] but it is best labeled as a double zigzag. Additionally, prices should be turning now. It is at its own resistance.

The VIX was hesitant today and still holds the upsloping line.

The Wilshire 5000 has not reached its 38.2% retrace Fib yet. And has ran into underside resistance. I am not giving up on the count Minute [ii] just yet. Because it means the market is about to flush itself with greater force in wave [iii] of 3 of (3) down. And we have reason – as outline in my analysis above – that it could very well be a Black Friday or a Black Monday. Otherwise nm, lol.

Ok even if the NYSE never regains 16,022, yet prices rally upwards a bit during most of lazy August, we have our counts worked out.

And the Wilshire weekly. A backtest of both lines could be in the works. And even if the Wilshire prices reach here, the NYSE will not regain 16,022 is my proposal.

UPDATE: ALL AN INSIDE JOB

They are all in on it. Putin, Zelenskyy, PoohBear, Biden, Johnson, etc. Even the President wench of Taiwan. They are “all in” on assembling the New World Order. However, Russia and China have their nuclear arsenals pointed at Babylon USA. So that is the problem that is keeping them from assembling the 10 nuclear armed power nations of the end times. There are currently 9 but the bible predicts there will be 10. Iran will most likely have the bomb within a year completing the prophecy of the 10 kings/kingdoms that need to be united to form the New World Order.

Remember this: SATAN controls them all now that he is kicked out of heaven, and he knows he has but a little time. Satan has the Ring of Power. And the world’s elite HATES Jesus Christ – and not because they are Atheists. But because they are Satanists.

Therefore, this seemingly intractable problem can only be solved via war, famine and complete global financial collapse. And soon global war. Putin is wrecking his country on purpose. Xi will soon do the same by attacking Taiwan. Why, you ask, would they betray their countries? Isn’t that what the Uniparty in the United States has been doing? Isn’t that what the European Union and any other corrupted regional “co-op” been doing to their own populations erecting Police States and no one noticed?

Israel has done this by force feeding vaccines upon their populations. Indeed, has not every country in the world done the same? Force these abominable kill shots on everyone and preparing them for the eventual Mark of the Beast to come?

You see there is the sticky problem of the populations and militaries of Russia and China who are not agreeable to a “New World Order”. Therefore, the countries must be subdued not by direct action within, but via wars of attrition with an outside “enemy”. And this will cause global collapse because China and Taiwan are keys to the global economy. And this was not an “accident” either. It was done on purpose. War in Ukraine depresses world food supplies. War in Taiwan will finish off the global financial system completely. And if it doesn’t, perhaps Satan is allowed to “toss” a nuke somewhere just for good measure. Who knows?

However, the world will not end in complete “M.A.D.” nuclear holocaust. The bible tells us so. God will not allow it to happen, it will end HIS WAY. Satan has earthly power, but only for a short time. Satan is not allowed to trigger nuclear holocaust. Besides, he does not want that, he wants to be worshipped by the entire world. And once the Antichrist declares himself to be God – otherwise known as the Abominations of Desolations – the war on God’s people: Christians, will begin in earnest. And we Christians ARE overcome and many martyred for the cause of Christ. So be prepared by keeping faith in Jesus and preaching the Gospel.

Not to say that nuclear weapons will not be involved at the end days, they surely will. The day of Armageddon. The bible predicts Babylon USA will be destroyed in a surprise nuclear attack by the 10 kings/kingdoms. Yes, Babylon will be betrayed. The Great Whore who brought nuclear weapons into the world and has the blood of over 50,000,000 aborted babies on its hands will be judged in double.

Not to worry if you’re a Christian you will have been raptured on that Great Day of the Lord 3 1/3 years earlier.

NOTE: This is the timeline based on Sep 2028 Armageddon and the “solving” of Daniel’s 70 weeks prophecy, it’s not just some random guess. Likely if no global war this year, it is probably not correct. If they kill Zelenskyy he is obviously not the Antichrist. But he sure does act like one, yes?

Remember this chart predicted Satan was here on earth making his “covenant” with his children of the devil late October 2021. (Remember, Satan likes to imitate God). Halloween was probably a big celebration. And the Wilshire 5000 topped November 8th, 1 week after. And the first serious war occurred on February 24th (a very odd an unusual time to start a war – middle of winter). September is the key month for total global war. And this means China “surprise” attacks.

I cannot believe anyone is seriously buying this stock market in the effort to maybe squeeze another 10% profit. LOL, it’s all gonna burn anyway!

ORIGINAL POST

The DJIA and SPX gap down finally are closed. On the Wilshire 5000, wave (c) of [ii] = wave (a) of [ii].

There is excitement again in the air. Seemingly “upside surprise” resulted in a panic buying which saw both the NYSE and Wilshire 5000 produce a price “gap” on the tape which is not a usual occurrence. This is the kind of move and day that gets the retail traders into a “fear of missing out” mode again. And a close above 4000 SPX, seemingly its “game on man” again for the markets.

But a Minute [ii] of 3 of (3) down is supposed to end exactly with that type of sentiment. An “excitement”, and “good news” of “inflation is being tamed” and everything feels just fine. But if the primary count is true, the bottom is about to drop out of the markets and thus that is still the primary count until proven otherwise.

The top alt is presented. The market has yet to retrace .38% of its total decline and resistance lies overhead. We’ll see how excited everyone truly is. One thing for sure, if a steady decline occurs, retailers will probably start buying the dip.

And if our end-times scenario is true, the China-Taiwan war is not too far off in the distance. And that WILL collapse the markets. China-Taiwan IS the global market. Good luck getting your iPhones when U.S. carrier aircraft are shooting down Chinese jets over the strait of Taiwan. This is what they want to do anyway.

There is an outside chance the Fed hikes more than .75 points. There is justification to hike a full point. Should that happen, expect a huge market downside surprise.

The VIX chart is interesting. Coming down to meet the rising trendline suggests it is ready to accelerate upward.

Well, we have reached our wave [ii] target in a most excellent wave structure. The major gap down is not quite closed (5 SPX points).

The alternate count is that the 17 June low is actually an Intermediate (1) wave low – a leading diagonal triangle falling wedge pattern. This would imply a significant advance in price over the next month or so culminating in Intermediate (2). A price rise above blue Minor 2 would be a confirmation.

But do not disregard the “negative” Zweig breadth thrust event that has occurred and has not been “overridden”. Recall this chart from 13 June:

The updated chart through yesterday’s data. A decent poke higher yet the time frame is not significant, nor has it reached above 61.5. So, one must assume the market is still in enthralled by the negative 10-day event. The NYSE has diverged from the overall market. It has not risen above its previous pivot of 15,028.

We shall see. For example, a price move thrust higher Monday to resulting in a reading above 61.5 would be an upside “surprise” that would be very concerning for the overall bearish count.

Therefore, the market is at a major crossroads.

The weekly shows a very slight positive divergence in the RSI but it is a weak signal and considering the negative breadth thrust event as discussed above, we have no reason to change our count to the alternate at this time.

So, we are at a major crossroads for the overall market. Regardless if it rallies in a surprise (2) it is still doomed overall.

Sorry I forgot to publish this post from last night.

Has this rally surprised you? No, Elliott Wave Theory allowed for it or even predicted it. When we had a clear 3 waves down from (a) to “a of (b)” is when we realized that a more complex Minute [ii] or even a higher wave degree Intermediate (2) may be tracing out.

This was a very good reason to be cautious on “rushing” the bear collapse. But the bear collapse is indeed likely coming, this is the last hurrah whether or not the gap gets closed or not.

This blog said almost a month ago, that if that big fat open gap down was to be ever closed, Minute [ii] – at the least – would have to do the job. So, it seems to be panning out.

And finally, the 50 DMA has been reached.

A big problem is that the market is pricing in, at the moment, at least a .75 rate hike later this month by The Fed. In fact, it is on the verge of signaling a full 1-point rate hike.

Higher interest rates bring about debt destruction, defaults, bankruptcies. At some point if interest rates get out of hand (they will) it will bring about a cascading default tsunami. Ultimately asset deflation of the higher end will occur (real estate, luxury goods, the markets). Yet at the same time due to constrained markets and broken “just in time” supply system (the effects of supply and demand) the world has depended upon, lower end rates will stay elevated just enough to bankrupt the poor people.

So, asset deflation hurts the rich, yet a continuing – and intentional – supply and demand disruption will continue to destroy the poor. $5 a gallon gas does not hurt the rich, but a massive high end asset inflation does. A collapsing Ponzi scheme worldwide market will bring about massive deflation. A broken supply system will ensure the poor do not “benefit” from a deflationary overall environment.

I have always called this a “rising interest rate inflationary depression”. A depression in which the high-end assets deflate but the low-end assets (food, energy, basic living needs) remain elevated thus destroying both ends of the spectrum at the same time. I am theorizing that the world is about to enter this phase if not already in it.

Inflation is not just a monetary effect, supply and demand is also a factor along with of course social mood trends.

I liken it to an analogy of a hot air balloon that is sent into the stratosphere flying so high that the human passengers perish due to the ascent into the thin oxygen “death” zone. And the sheer height of the balloon eventually brings about its own demise: ice, weight, and a lack of oxygen will bear upon it until it reverses and deflates at a rapid rate and at some point, rips apart on its descent.

And even if the occupants of the balloon survived the very peak ascent point, the resulting descent and crash and destruction of the hot air balloon will result in them dying, nonetheless.

I kind of see this grinding inflation in light of this high-flying balloon analogy. Slowing taking us up to 40,000 feet and we either die outright, or we die when we hit the ground because our very balloon gets ripped beyond repair on the way down.

What would 6% interest rates do? What would 10% do? What would 18% do? Certainly, no longer inflation, but hyper deflation.

It really doesn’t matter anymore; forces have already unleashed that are beyond anyone’s control and the inevitable is massive asset deflation and collapse of the system.

And if they printed money to try and reverse it, it would still result in collapse of the system. But that is the entire secret strategy of the elites in charge: to collapse the system one way or another so they can bring about another system in their image and liking. The Beast system to come that the bible predicts.