Month: April 2025

I apologize for the profanity in yesterday’s post. I had a very bad day and took it out on the market. When in reality I really don’t care about the stock market in whatever way it goes. Sometimes you get “yanked about” in life circumstances and the market has been behaving this way over many weeks. In the end, the market is all in God’s plan so why would I fight it?

Today is a day that took out the most recent high but not the second most recent high. A very obvious triple short-term top in the market has now occurred. The massive 167-point open chart gap down is such a strong market target. When it opened down massively a few weeks ago, I suggested that the market likes to challenge these gaps sooner rather than later. Well, the market plunged and immediately historically bounced, and it has been clawing and heaving doing its best to breach that massive gap down. And so we have reached a stage where it may be in a position to finally do so.

The most bullish count:

But despite last night’s rant, I haven’t given up on a possible Minor 4 count. Although it would have to be a complex corrective count and the following chart is the best I can come up with at the moment. After all, the market has ALSO left two very large gaps up opens over the last 2 days. Which side will prevail??

Even though the 5-minute charts are considered “squiggles” the size of these daily moves is actually quite massive and volatile still. Sometimes we should zoom out and imagine a count and just be patient. I can still see the above massive 167 SPX gap down being closed or nearly closed and the overall larger count being bearish.

Rulers sometimes work best in the market. It was the logical place for the algorithms to massively defend and buy.

Death of the dollar talk has been rampant. Really? It still looks like an overall bullish setup.

Often the markets have to experience true panic before a meaningful run toward new all-time highs. Yet, the CPCE is so still obviously NOT panicked, we can take solace that the market has not been overly “bearish”. The contrarian play is that the market is going to drop yet more first.

I’m posting a chart full bull retard here. A possible primary Elliott Wave count is that the SPX makes a new all-time high eventually within a few months or so. The caveat is that the DJIA, and NASDAQ composite probably diverge and not make a new all-time high. In other words, today was the “kickoff day” of a significant wave 3 of 3 event upwards in the SPX. Practically a 90% up day all around. The wave count is such that the SPX has had a series of 1-2, [i]-[ii] upwards. Both the corrective wave 2 and [ii] are 3-3-5 “flats”.

The overall primary count would be thus:

The alternative count is that the market is just going to keep fucking with us as much as possible and cover the very big open gap above in a wave (1)-(2), 1-2 DOWN and then collapse.

I wished I cared, but this massive trading range is just one bug jerk around so far for both sides.

Of course, the other count is wave 5 of (1) is just going to take its fucking time as much as possible to fuck with you and fuck you out of all sanity. That seems about right.

CONCLUSION:

I’ve presented the 3 top counts based on my feelings of today. I wanted to be bearish but about 4 dickheads from work swear the market is “over” that I thought to myself, these assholes are so bearish I should probably be bullish. And today’s internal numbers and the fact that a possible 1-2, [i]-[ii], double 3-3-5 flat pattern, back-to-back ended yesterday is noteworthy for the contrarian in me. One guy who didn’t even know what the Dow Jones or S&P 500 index was, emphatically told me the stock market is finished just deflated me to the point where I resign and might as well start counting to a new all-time high again.

When the plebes at work are paying attention to their 401Ks to the point of making proclamations about the stock market in which they don’t even understand that the S&P500 is an “index” and not a stock, then I resign to the possible wave count, that new all-time SPX highs are probably coming in the summer….I really hope I’m wrong.

I’m just showing the preferred primary count tonight. The count allows for a gap up bullish open, but if that occurs, I expect a reversal lower.

The 2 bearish wave counts both have the market requiring new lows. These are the best counts considering that the wave structure since the market low looks corrective up. In either count, a break to a lower low should not be long and drawn out. The VIX should elevate again and an impulse lower should occur over the next week.

The bullish count option is shown on the DJIA at a lower degree level than the chart from yesterday. But as you can note from the above bearish charts, the wave structure since the low counts more as a three-wave corrective up rather than impulse.

The ridiculously very large open chart down gap still exists just above the price point of today’s close. It would be a good place in the count to try and breach this open gap in the most bearish count of (1)-(2), 1 – 2. Please note that the market is still trading within the very large trading range created by the euphoric squeeze up to where pink wave (a) is currently labeled.

There are other possible counts. Perhaps the “tease” of breaking yet higher is just that and prices start drifting heavily lower to trade in the lower part of this massive trading range that was created in about 30 minutes time. I have no preference. I don’t really actually care to be honest. Break higher would be exciting, breaking lower would be a thrill. Let’s let the market tell us if we are a massive 3 wave down from peak or something more sinister such as a massive impulse is happening. Fun times!

This is the bullish chart but it’s kind of boring, yes? A slog back up to new all-time peaks. As if we haven’t seen that song and dance before. Whatever. See the slog of post 2020 Covid collapse? It took months to break to higher highs again, but it did. Again, if that’s the case, I’m going to get bored again and probably just wait for the dreadful slog to be over with. This doesn’t break any rules, but it looks gay.

In 2020, the Covid panic, interest rates hit the floor across the spectrum. A dramatic ending to a 40-year downtrend in yields. That has not happened this market collapse (yet) and I don’t think it will happen. There is simply too much debt to hide. Oh, there are a zillion debt-hiding programs the Fed and the banks have created, but at some point, it will fall apart and probably quite quickly. Which would suit them just fine anyways as the system has been setup to “take everything”. They are not hiding it anymore. The Great Taking – Documentary

10-year yield seems to be in a log consolidation period with a coming break higher.

The best count has the market in a (1)-(2), 1- 2. We might get a surge Monday morning to fill the open upper gap down.

Of course, futures should tell us a story if they are down big time come Monday. We shall see. We still might be in a wave 5 of (1) down. It’s not the best count, but it cannot be ruled out just yet.

The bullish alt count has new market highs coming. I’m not ruling this out, it just doesn’t look right.

Parabolic Gold.

The primary count of Minor 4 corrective of Intermediate wave (1) down is abandoned even though technically wave 4 has not yet interfered within wave 2’s price range. However, today was too strong of an up day in the context of a “corrective” Minor 4 wave. Therefore, the count has 2 possibilities:

1) The market traced an overall major corrective 3 wave pattern from peak to recent low and now will eventually make a new all-time high. This is shown here on the DJIA: (This is NOT my primary count though – it doesn’t look right)

2) The market is actually experiencing a wave “one-two, one two” bearish down event. THIS is the primary count. The upper open gap may even be closed in this proposed count. Overlap may even occur from peak 2 into the previous wave (2) price range. This is the top bearish count. However, things would have to reverse fairly quickly in this count. A quick price peak and then a persistent drive lower.

Today’s historically large intraday reversal could indicate that Minor wave 3 is actually still tracing out. Minor 3 would = 1.618 x price move of Minor 1 @ 4,746 SPX. This means that today’s peak was Minute [iv] of Minor 3 down. This actually looks good as a wave structure.

Of course there are other short term counts to consider. The market may be range bound for a while created by the violent bounce in Monday’s trading. Thus, we are in some kind of complex sideways Minor 4 corrective. The count should resolve itself. If we are still in Minor 3 down, I would expect a lower low to occur fairly quicky.

Up to date CPCE. Starting to move.

Of course, the real market killer corporate killer is the short-term 3- and 6-month T bill which determines where the Fed places the short-term rates. Barely budging despite the +50 VIX.

Very violent price action all day with a very elevated VIX. Today reminded me more of 2008 plunge and violent bounce post-Lehman more than it did 2020.

The primary count is that today’s price low was the Minor 3 low of a 5-wave structure down. This implies that a new price low MUST occur to validate this large 5 wave structure. Otherwise, so far only 3 large waves from peak have occurred. The only EW rule is that Minor 4 bounce cannot trace into Minor 2 corrective. Prices must remain below Minor 1 low and make a new low beneath Minor 3 to confirm that overall, 5 wave structure.

Here are a couple of looks:

The first supposes a major bounce to form a price hit on the proposed (1) channel line down. Prices would partially or almost wholly fill the large gap down.

The second look: Note how the bounce today hit the underside of the proposed “base” channel. This is a classic move of a wave 4 price peak in a 5-wave structure down. We are talking a multi-hundred SPX move both up and down in a matter of minutes. The violence of this market is rarely seen. Even in the midday “calm”, the 1-minute charts were moving 50-60 handles. But today seemed a short-term panic low. However again, there is a required lower low to form a proper 5 wave structure down.

So far Minor 3 has extended about 1.5 times the length of Minor 1. This is a nice ratio.

China also broke a bit. Note the overlap from the initial bounce low price peak. Which means the move up from the 321 low in early 2024 is a 3 wave move corrective.

Note how in 2020 bond yields plunged in the panic. Thats not happening – yet – so far. And that is far more damaging than anything else. Sticky high interest rates are already killing the economy. The consumer is tapped out.

Again, I don’t have today’s CPCE data, but the moving averages are starting to budge upwards. Its going to take a lot more price plunging to get these things moving higher.

And the very long averages have barely budged.

The SPX is still a long way from even the 2020 price peak. That was only 5 short years ago. I’m confident it will work its way there eventually.

Every other panic since 2000 results in lower short-term rates. In 2020, they quickly plunged to near zero. This time seems different because it is. The 40 year down channel for yields (see the 10- and 30-year charts above) has finished its pattern and a new pattern has emerged if anyone cared to notice.

Glorious waves. Best count is that the market is in wave [iii] of 3 down. A 90% down day in both declining shares and volume. I read somewhere today set an all-time record for total volume all markets combined.