Ok, well, the SPX got to another all-time high as this blog has had as the primary count for about 2 months since the Zweig Breadth Thrust event in late April. Elliott Wave Update ~ 29 April 2025 – Daneric’s Elliott Waves
In that major update I surmised that the market would take between 2 and 5 months to get where we are today and it did it in the minimum time of 2 months. It’s been quite the shooting star.
But as of today, there are enough waves in place to consider the count complete. Does that mean I think it is complete? No, likely the market will melt up as there is no more resistance. Yet the DJIA still has over 900 points to go to match the SPX and NASDAQ in achieving a new all-time high. It is a fractured market and often that is a bearish trait.
Just looking at simple trendlines, if the market were to hit this long term upper trendline, we are looking at SPX 6350 = 6450ish. This seems likely.
Short term prices are very stretched. Yet it probably will hit the upper trendline which I show at 6300+.
The squiggle count shows that there are already enough waves in place to consider the pattern “done”. However, I’ve probably shortchanged the squiggles in the Minor wave 5… I just wanted to show that Minor 5 of (5) has enough subwaves to be considered mature. We have been following this bullish count since early May. And it has not disappointed.
The GDOW also will probably hit an upper trendline. This is actually a better overall 5 wave pattern from late 2022.
Yet the DOW Industrials are obviously lagging. So many bets will be placed in this index for to catch up with the SPX and NASDAQ. Thus, it may outperform. I can see it challenging its all-time high before all is said and done. But it may come up short verifying the fractured nature of this Ponzi-scheme of a market.
And the poor dollar got hammered since January. But I still believe someday it will eclipse the al-time highs. Maybe its foolish. I think bonds are foolish. People sell bonds into dollars. Not the other way around.
