Across the board selling today and crypto and silver got hammered. Because of the further price drop today and the overall negative price action everywhere one looks, the best wave count for the Wilshire 5000 (and SPX) is that the ending diagonal triangle ended last week and it’s been just a bunch of shakeouts just prior to the bottom falling out.
This does make a really nice count. Choppy overlapping finish at the end. To confirm the count implies a quick selloff to beneath the late November 2025 Blue Minor 4 low. Same holds true for the SPX.
However, there is an interesting alternate count that cropped up today. This would be known as a complex corrective, a 3-3-3 sideways count that stretches out time rather than price. zigzag – zigzag – expanding triangle structure.
Again, there really is no more room for this to be a valid count, so I wanted to show it tonight. We always want to prepare for the best alternate with a valid count.
I’m not really rooting either way, just that I hope this entire mess resolves itself one way or another finally.
Afterall, the DOW is still ok for an ascending triangle:
The Composite is starting to break down. The DOW is holding near highs and an ending diagonal triangle on the Wilshire 5000 has yet to be ruled out.
The DOW has a distinct ascending triangle pattern. It is one reason to think we still get an upside pop overall out of the market. I just don’t see how the market makes and ALL_TIME high near DOW 50,000 and not finish the job. I think it’ll finish the job before it’s all over. That’s a bit over a 1% move up from today’s close.
Yields are starting to show life to the upside. It would be more than due. That will be of course a disaster for mortgage’s etc.
Short term rates are not signaling anything at the moment.
5 monthly candles in a row for the NASDAQ Composite that are near a top. From strong hands to weak. Still overbought on the monthly!
The market has yet to resolve itself. Either an ending diagonal triangle is still in play or it’s not. Either the market finally breaks out into “upside surprise” or not. Either the top is in, or not. Below presents 2 variations on the ending diagonal triangle (assuming it hasn’t already finished for which there is a valid count). But I suspect the market is not yet done although plenty of signs of cracking.
2nd variation of the EDT:
And there is a valid series of “ones and twos”…which implies the market will continue holding up for at least another month or so. This count is very close to “upside surprise” in a “third of a third” wave. A break upwards and hold over the upper trendline will be the key to this count. I suspect this is probably what the market will do. The mania goes on. Even so, the entire sideways struggle since September could be strong hands selling into weak hands (retail). There is certainly evidence for that.
Historic moves with Gold and Silver. It seems cracks are surely forming in the global fiat financial system. Of course, the paper gold/silver markets are leveraged probably 100-1 and no doubt full of fraud. And politically, governments can outlaw the holding of gold (and now silver) as Roosevelt did in the 1930’s. But the rapid price moves up indicate that the global financial system is coming under stress that the major banking powers are not used to. What it all means from here, I’m not sure. But sentiment on Gold and silver remains historically highly elevated. Everyone seems to wait on a large pullback, but when that comes, the pullback might last several months and/or years.
Of course, everyone always says this means the “death of the dollar” (as if any other global fiat currency is any better!). I’ve always said it is the underlying bonds –that are redeemed into dollars (or whatever) – will collapse first. I mean, isn’t this obvious? No one goes around buying food, eggs and fuel in bond payments. No, they sell their bond holdings and redeem them with dollars first. Then they buy eggs, food and fuel…
So, the bonds are worth less than dollars. Both are paper promises that cannot be filled. But we don’t sell dollars into bonds, the market is setup to do the opposite.
Lots of bond stress in Japan. They have gone the deepest and the longest into bond fiat hell. Therefore, they might be the canary in the coal mine concerning the coming global collapse.
Don’t look at the price of fiat currencies…they are all trash comparing each to each other…but look at the underlying bonds that prop up those currencies. The bonds will fail first. I’m not saying that the fiat currencies will not also fail…just that there is an order of breakage. That is how the system is setup. It is a global credit system. Credit = money. The failing credit collapses first.
WAVE COUNTS
The ending diagonal triangle may still be in play:
The other count (and I’m not sure which will win out) is a series on ones and twos in wave 5 and we will have “upside surprise” soon next week. This is kind of a weird looking count.
Industrials now taking 3 stabs at breaking out.
The following 2 charts so differing degrees of wave count, but overall, that doesn’t affect the “peak count”.
NASDAQ floundering at the top for 4 months:
China:
Very nice count on Japan!
All-time highs in junk debt. No fear here!
Please note what they do, not what they say. The CPCE hasn’t had hardly ever had a bearish day in many, many months. Still not real panic.
The potential ending diagonal triangle is still a possibility. But the primary count calls for an “upside surprise” in a third of a third.
The top alt might have made its high today. Yes, today was a new all-time high in the Wilshire 5000. There is even room for another pop up out of the gate tomorrow but then it would have to reverse.
Sooner or later this long-winded bull count will end in spectacular fashion. The freak moves of Gold and Silver seem appropriately timed for this ending.
Well, the curious ending diagonal triangle pattern has perfectly topped over the trendline (as was suggested in yesterday’s update) and has gone under.
If this is the true pattern, expect a quick price collapse to beneath blue Minor 4.
So, we got that going for us. But these never seem to work out. Otherwise never mind. We’ll know tomorrow.
Best guess squiggle count. Yes, it’s not a “clean” impulse down, but yeah, if we are transitioning from a major all-time top into something else, it will be messy.
The top alt count is that Minute [ii] of 5 is tracing out or has bottomed today.
I’m only going to post the squiggle count tonight. The market neither went up to form a possible Minute wave [iii] of 5 of (5) of [5] nor did it park itself in a decline as a wave [iv] of 5 of an ending diagonal triangle as was proposed in the Wilshire 5000 3-minute chart last night as the decline was a new low over the past many days.
But that is actually good because in one day, it eliminates certain options in the wave count and opens up other probabilities. And that is what wave counting is all about, probabilities based on wave structure and social mood sentiment. And sentiment has been sky high in many areas.
And I’ll be honest, this wave count below is a “beautiful picture” as Robert Prechter of EWI has often said. That’s why I use the sunset background!
Ok. Well, we got some real count confirmation today. The Wilshire 5000 reached a new all-time intra-day high. I mix in S&P 500 charts because these are equivalent charts although I prefer to use the Wilshire 5000 when parsing top and bottom ticks in squiggle counts.
Possible squiggle counts going forward. Wedge maybe? The deep retrace of this morning head-faked everyone and then the surge of a wave [iii]. Seems “wedge-like” behavior near a top. Very herky jerky. Very curious to see what emerges tomorrow.
Industrials new all-time high today.
The Nasdaq (nor the SPX for that matter) did not confirm new highs.
BONUS CHART:
This chart below – and I use the SPX so everyone can relate, as it makes such nice trendlines – shows, in log scale, the long term upper trendline that has been seemingly out of reach for the last few years. Yet, if the market is ever working toward this upper trendline, I feel it would have to be within the next 4-7 months.
Otherwise, it’s just a ghost target never reached which could very well be the case since many, if not most times, wave “fives” do not reach this upper trendline.
Yet it was on my heart as an example that if this wretched world is reaching peak financial exuberance and bubble behavior, an April 13th, 2026, target of approximately 7900 SPX would be another 13% rise from today’s peak. This would obviously be a hyper-focus on all things “AI” and perhaps a perceived sense of “loosey goosey” Fed monetary policy that they just announced today and is surely to come in some form or another. But that will be an illusion. The irony is that the higher the market goes, the lesser influence the Fed has controlling it.
I mean don’t you guys watch monster movies?
If this would occur, the likely scenario that I have always adhered to is that the end of the global financial system as we know it would actually be strengthened in argument. Yet if we head that way, we would be all like boiling frogs in a pot unable to sense just how insane things had become.
I have shown the purple line sharp “angle of advance” which would largely match the beginning of this manic phase from the depths of hell (666) of the 2009 low.
Anyways, I have a hard time believing this is what may actually happen, yet if it did, I would be ecstatic, and it would be very exciting to see play out. The final bubble in all things.
So yeah, we might have another 5 grueling months where all things are pain in life.
A loss of 300-400 SPX points would probably confirm the primary count that I have been posting (as far as squiggles) is the case in hand and would make this chart just an allusion that the algorithms fail to fulfill. Because that is all it is about anymore, turning on the machines and letting the software take control. Where have we seen this before? Turn Those Machines Back On!!!
But yeah, I almost hope this scenario would happen. Let’s just keep blowing the bubble higher and higher at the pace that it began in 2009 – 2010. But the primary counts are super OK, and sentiment is super high. A large downturn coming very soon seems to be the best bet for now.
