The market is trading very “heavy”. An outright crash is predicted based on the Elliott Wave count. How close or far away from that exact moment is why we count intraday squiggles, but the overall outlook points toward collapse.
We are only trying to guess the timing.
Lowered expectations for Minor 2. If it is Minor 2 that is…
It’s amazing the “psychology” of the bear market so far. No one has yet to say, “the market has crashed”. Yet the Composite already shows a 62% retracement from the peak versus the 2020 low.
And a 38% drop from intraday peak. And yet the pundits would be correct. The market has yet to truly “panic”. Maybe it won’t because that is what everyone is waiting for. Perhaps we just keep grinding lower and lower.
The RSI is not oversold. Is that bullish? Or is that a sign that the market has plenty room to fall. I contend the latter of course. How we get there is a matter of squiggles.
The market finally finished lower in about the manner I was hoping for to form a very decent Minor 1 of Intermediate (3) wave low.
Additionally, The DJIA, the NYSE also made lower lows finally and both confirmed 5 wave moves from the Intermediate wave (2) peak we have been referencing for many weeks.
And zooming in on Minute [v] of 1 we get the squiggle count which works quite well.
The Wilshire daily, which is a twin sister of the SPX practically, shows the daily Minor wave 2 target range. The double positive divergence remained of course so we might expect prices to move above Minute [iv] price peak as a follow-through of that technical divergence.
Please note how today’s candle – which is labeled Minor 1 of (3) low – looks identical to the candle of the Minor 1 of (1) low back on February 24th, the day of the Ukrainian/Russian war start.
DJIA made a lower low which confirms 5 waves from (2)
NYSE the same. Very satisfying wave structures and all indices seem to be in agreement…which is bearish for the overall longer-term count even if we get a sharp Minor 2 of (3) bounce.
[UPDATE: This is the chart that was shown a week ago complete with dashed-red trendline pointing to the likely Minor 1 low. I’m not sure why I did away with that over the last several days.]
The best 2 counts are still the same as yesterday. Either Minor 1 finished a few days ago at the intraday low, or it has a bit more to go. I prefer it finish lower, but either way, the structure is solid.
The Dailys are showing double positive divergence still. If a hard rally bounce Minor 2 plays out starting tomorrow, expect prices to go a bit above the previous Minute [iv] peak of Minor 1 of (3) down to form a healthy Minor 2 of (3).
The DJIA has been diverging from the other indices. It too would look better to make a lower low so that we have a solid 5 waves down from (2).
The more the Russians attack infrastructure within Ukraine, the more the likelihood of some kind of infrastructure retaliation inside Russia itself. I think this is what Team Babylon USA-NATO ultimately want. They have desired wanton destruction in Ukraine so that we are more apt to escalate and get directly involved. A reason to provide Ukraine with the most advanced long-range missiles capable of damaging targets within Russia itself. Or a reason to enact a no-fly zone.
The West wants Russia to commit itself full-scale in its war with Ukraine. To commit even more military to advance within the country. For when this happens, NATO could get involved and with much of Russia’s conventional military on the move toward Kiev (again), the trap will be sprung. A half squadron of A-10’s would have made mincemeat out of any 40-mile-long convoy as was earlier in the campaign.
This makes sense as the West will not stop until Russia is subdued as a threat to Team Babylon New World Order. Putin himself may actually be in on the global conspiracy to create a one world government as I have suggested numerous times before as he is a card-carrying WEF member. Regardless, Satan has put it in his heart to wage war and even more war, for what purpose we can only guess.
But it is clear most of NATO is itching for a fight with Russia. This can only happen if Russia keeps indiscriminately attacking Ukraine and creating a “humanitarian crisis”. After all, winter is coming and tens of millions without power, water, heating, etc. will give the rest of the world a reason to get involved. Putin has taken the bait once again.
THE WAVE COUNTS
Both the SPX and Wilshire 5000 have confirmed with today’s new 2022 intraday low that 5 waves have occurred since the wave (2) peak. This would form Minor 1 of (3) down. We can then expect a bound for Minor 2, and then the markets would be setup for a major crash in 3 of (3) down.
I hate to be nitpicky, but I’m a bit disappointed Minor 1 is not much lower in price. Perhaps today’s low was only subwave (i) of [v] of 1 of (3) down. regardless, it’s a wonderful Elliott Wave structure.
The escalation of the war in Ukraine is purposeful and meant to provoke Russia into attacking with missile strikes. We have now pledged more air defense systems. The more Putin attacks, the more NATO will be given the excuse to enact a no-fly zone over Ukraine in which of course the pledged missile defense systems are the first step. Sooner or later the war will go “hot” between NATO and Russia. That is what Satan and the Antichrist (Zelenskyy) want.
At some point China will attack Taiwan, the weather window for a cross-strait invasion is late October/November month timeframe. Global financial collapse is not too far off.
I am not worried about complete nuclear annihilation as in ICBM’s launching worldwide. Bible prophecy does not suggest that the world ends this way. No, the world as we know it ends when the Antichrist takes full power over the one world government and starts to persecute and kill Christians all over the world. Jesus then comes back at the First Resurrection/Rapture and God’s wrath begins to pour out on the earth for real.
So, who is the coming False Prophet? I still think Elon Musk is a strong possibility.
Remember, Satan’s hates all of mankind, not just Christians. He wishes to provoke nuclear annihilation and at some point, I do think a nuclear warhead, perhaps a tactical smaller warhead, will be detonated. But God will not allow a global ICBM exchange. Satan is limited in what he is allowed to do.
Revelation chapter 12 sheds some light on what Satan is trying to do in the end times. The “flood” Satan casts out of his mouth is the flood of armies and weapons trying to get mankind to annihilate itself. The woman in Revelation 12 represents Eve, the mother of all of mankind. Satan is trying to kill all of mankind. But when he fails, he goes after the Christians and demands everyone else worship him.
15 And the serpent cast out of his mouth water as a flood after the woman, that he might cause her to be carried away of the flood.
16 And the earth helped the woman, and the earth opened her mouth, and swallowed up the flood which the dragon cast out of his mouth.
17 And the dragon was wroth with the woman, and went to make war with the remnant of her seed, which keep the commandments of God, and have the testimony of Jesus Christ.
ORIGINAL POST
The SPX came within 4 points of a new intraday low for 2022 and “officially” confirm 5 waves down from (2). So, it would look better if it did make a lower low to make the 5-wave move confirmed. But either way, close enough.
The Composite did make a new 2022 low and it has been the downside leader.
Wilshire also came close to a new 2022 intraday low but not quite.
Minute [v] of Minor 1 of Intermediate (3) down is the primary count and today didn’t disappoint. We only need a lower intraday low to confirm 5 waves from (2), and that would confirm the overall bearish count.
The primary wave count is Minute [v] of Minor 1 of Intermediate (3) is commencing. It has been 2 down days in a row since the 2-day surge earlier this week. The wave pattern is setup for a lower low confirming yet another solid 5 wave pattern down from the Intermediate (2) price high.
Otherwise, if prices continue to rise, the 2 alternate counts shown on Tuesday still are to be considered. The key wave level is prices cannot break into the Minute [i] low, but if prices actually got near there then we can probably already call this Minor 2 and not Minute [iv].
The 40-year credit expansion binge is over folks. Even if they wanted to reinflate the Ponzi, social mood will likely foil any attempt. Yes, a big bounce is probably coming to form wave [2] but like I said, “debt” is not really an investment at all. It is an IOU. A promise that can be broken. An illusion. It is a manmade form of usury which God forbids. It is evil. The entire system is an abomination. And if it drops to zero from here, all the better.
Just because I keep putting a [1] there, doesn’t mean that it is [1]. Maybe it’s getting close to a “third of a third” down. Sure, looks like a waterfall to me.
Well, the primary count looks about perfect as long as prices do not go much higher. Otherwise, we’ll have to consider the alternate counts presented in yesterday’s update.
I was sure the day would end positive but the last hour bearish price action that led to all three major indexes closing red for the day was perhaps telling.
Basically, a poke above 3800 resistance and then a slap down. Tomorrow we shall see how convicted people are (or the machines) to buy this market at these levels. My gut tells me if tomorrow is a relatively “flat” open, then selling will commence very hard not creating a mega-gap down.
Actually, in my bearish mind, any market open tomorrow presents a potential bearish outlook. Gap down, gap up, or flat. How’s that for a bearish outlook? LOL, I have the end of the world as we know it on my side.
Well, the wave count went about as I expected last night but I did not see it being such one-sided strong market internals. It was a very solid 90%+ up day across the board in the NYSE to include volume and advancers versus decliners. This is a rare event to have a 90%+ up day in both categories.
We have 3 counts to consider after today’s market action.
The first is the primary count of wave (c) of Minute [iv] 3-3-5 expanded flat and that a reversal down is coming very soon within a day or so. The key wave marker for this count is the price low of Minute [i]. Prices cannot go above that. If they did, we have an alternate count, see the second chart.
We have nice channeling still and a bit more room for upside to stay inside the down channel.
The top alternate is that Minor 1 actually finished at Friday’s low, the first subwave of Intermediate (3). This retrace ideally should stay below Fib 75% retrace (the upper gap just below [ii]) or else it would start to resemble our 2nd alternate count which is the third chart and I use the daily for that illustration. remember, I have been trying to determine if Minute [iii] or even Minor 1 has made its price low so it looks like a decent count.
The third count is that Intermediate wave (2) traced three waves to “A”, then three waves down to “B” and this is now the “kickoff” rally to five waves for wave C of a 3-3-5 downward flat Intermediate wave (2) and the rally will likely take many weeks maybe even through Thanksgiving. This would probably be the most painful market pathing for the most players involved, and the strong follow-through today is very bullish.
However, there are many people wanting out of this market and social mood is deteriorating so further price gains through higher resistance levels would be a slog. The red horizontal line is really first resistance and prices are just coming up to it.
Remember, the market “bottomed” below 3600 Friday and the 2-day bounce to 3790 has relatively been “resistance free” so far. Higher price levels above from here things get more serious and that is why this is the 3rd count because we are charting the end times anyways and there exists considerable resistance layers for the market to get back to 4250ish….
But it’s been a very weird market and very turbulent. We could just as well have a 90% down day across the board tomorrow or Friday. Or a tactical nuke could go off…
The only thing that bums me out for the immediate bearish pathing is that headlines like Marketwatch still are very cautious even after the end of today. The contrarian in me says we go higher because I am so used to predicting doom and the opposite happens.
However, we have the end of the world thing going on, so we have that going for us.
Marketwatch is however correct. “This is not healthy” is very true. And those assclowns have to show a needle, yes they suck. yeah, there are a lot of people in pain from the “Covaids” shot.
