Daneric's Elliott Waves

Best guess squiggle count. A move below the key wave marker is very bearish. It would perhaps indicate the move up is completed.

Ok. We were guessing based on market internals and the wave structure we would be in wave (iii) of [iii] of C of (2) up and the last several days has proven that was the best count. We have a key marker in place. The best count has wave C of (2) finishing up. How long and how high? Thats why we count squiggles.

The double Fibs show wave size relationships between waves A and C. I just made a Fib graph over wave A and duplicated it and placed the bottom at wave B. This lets us see easily when wave C = wave A in length which can be a common wave relationship in an A-B-C wave structure.

Overall, the Wilshire 5000 has reached a 50% overall retracement from all-time peak of November, 2021. I suspect prices will poke above wave peak of 4 of (1) down eventually.

The weekly suggests also that will happen to fulfill the double positive divergence in the RSI. An extreme price would be a “backtest” of the upper red trend line.

In other words to get back to an “extreme” bullish state of affairs, the market needs to re-conquer and get above this line. My prediction is that it will not be able to.

An idealized wave count and structure shown below. The Wilshire settled at the October 2022 low at the major support of the early February 2020 peak wave (D) of [4].

Well, there we had our price pop as suggested in the count.

The key wave marker is shown. If we just had the “third of a third” up, then we should see steady progress from here onward to finish wave C and the shorts who were not yet shaken out will be forced out and made to chase prices until wave (2) peaks.

The most bearish count is that wave C of (2) in the SPX is .618 x wave A. We are there if this is the case, and an immediate reversal should occur. But that’s probably not the case so don’t expect it to happen.

Well, it seems the market has worked itself up to a possible point where it will break upside surprise and jump over the resistance of the peak of wave “A” of (2).

Best squiggle count below if this is the case. (iii) of [iii] of C of (2).

It seems like upside surprise wave (iii) of [iii] of C of (2) up.

Again, the smaller target resides just above A. The larger target resides higher where C = A and more in time.

The Global Dow shows that the world is in a wave (2) up. This would be the final rise before the global war goes “hot”.

And I no longer get sarcastic emails about that. Even the willfully ignorant can see things are gone awry in this world. They no longer mock about global war conspiracies or that I am anti-vaccine idiot or that the global financial system is not in a global Ponzi scheme. They know it. And they now fear I was correct all along.

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Ok, the primary count is shown below in the form of a simple 5 – 3 – 5 zigzag. [Note: Wave A could be counted as zigzag itself but for simplicity’s sake I think this works better especially since the SPX has a different peak].

The Wilshire is shown but the SPX is practically the same count. The best count has that minute [i] of wave C of (2) has completed. Today may have been all or some of Minute [ii]. Perhaps a bit more consolidation for Minute [ii].

The rule for wave C of (2), being a zigzag, is that wave C must finish higher than wave A in price. Therefore, wave C is represented by the blue target box. As the waves trace out, we will be able to tighten the count and the box itself.

The convergence of channel lines and trendlines helps determine where we are in the structure. The black Fibonacci scale is to indicate how much wave C relates to wave A. For instance, wave C would be .618 times wave A just above the peak price of A. This is sometimes a common ratio relationship between waves C and A.

The SPX is the same chart as above. I show this because it is easier to relate the wave relationships. Wave C = .618 x A @ SPX 4139.

The SPX daily shows the overall big picture count. Between 4139 and 4155 there is 50% overall retrace resistance and wave C would be about .62% x wave A. This is less than 4% above today’s close.

The more stretched out target is where wave C = wave A which is very common, and it is a full 9% above today’s close and would take much more time.

With all that said, it is good to be mentally prepared for the “upside surprise” bullish short-term scenario (s). However, the most bearish scenario remains valid but as I keep saying, prices need to turn down hard and fast soon. There is still room for the bearish count that has been shown for over a month.

I’ll call this the “global war goes hot” scenario. It is quite bizarre to me, having lived through the some of the cold war and remembering “The Day After” movie of the early 1980’s and the real fear people had of nuclear war. Now it’s like a farcical chess match to be pondered.

I guess decades of fake video games will do that to a generation of people. I’ll remind the casual reader that 2 superpowers openly fighting in an open proxy war is not actually the best time to be buying the stock market hand over fist.

There is no “contrarian” play when there is no longer worldwide deliveries of foods and goods due to sudden global war and an overnight collapse of the globalist supply system. And we all know that is their goal.

The best count has us looking to confirm the peak of Minute [i] of wave C of (2).

If prices can peak above wave A of (2) then possibly this entire rise from late December is all of wave C of (2). I throw this out there because it will count nicely as the second 5 waves of a 5-3-5 zigzag.

On the bearish side of things, yesterday’s NYSE data moved above the overbought thrust line of 61.5 again. If the most bearish wave count is to remain intact, prices would have to plunge immediately, and we would look for yet another negative price breadth event.

This market remains frustrating for the maximum number of participants. There has been a lot of short squeezing going on and the shorts have been shaken out somewhat.

The Global DOW is actually in a bull market technically. After stair stepping a 38% drop, it has rallied over 27% back up in a very distinct and sharp zigzag pattern.

One could surmise that if the GDOW was to make eventual all-time highs again, it still has a lot of work cut out and would take the form of 5 waves up. I believe it is way overextended. And this chart gives the bears hope because all global stocks more or less rise and fall together except China which can sometimes operate much on its own.

People are still talking bear markets when actually globally this is not the case at all anymore. In fact, they missed the 27% rally. It’s probably the spot where strong hands will again start to turn things over to the weak hands.

The German DAX is not a very countable market, but you can see it is not in a bear market.

It seems likely the Wilshire 5000 is in Intermediate wave (2) up which has been our alternate count. If prices go above the December high where Minor A of (2) is marked, this will confirm the count.

Prices have broken above the big down trendline from the peak of January 2022.

The big black box represents the target box. For now, we’ll assume an A-B-C simple zigzag will be the corrective form. If prices can move above “A” of (2) then likely Minor 4 of (1) peak will be challenged as the next resistance.

Possible squiggle count for wave C of (2). Looking to confirm the peak of wave [i] of C of (2). Perhaps it has already completed.

Of course, the NYSE has already broken above its December peak and the recent positive breadth thrust event seems to have some follow through.

It’s clear the Global Dow is in this count already. As is the DJIA.

As the weekly shows, these are huge wave moves. If (1) down is correct, the size of (3) down will be ginormous and make the 2008 and 2020 collapse look like a picnic in the park. It’s actually exciting to see (2) take shape it would bring much clarity to the overall count.

Back below major support/resistance.

Well for the past numerous sessions the primary bearish count has been hanging in there despite the 15-day breadth thrust event on the NYSE. Perhaps the computers tried to manipulate the market only for the benefit of allowing the globalists to pull their money out for profit before the big collapse.

If this is wave 3 of (3) down, I expect a negative breadth thrust event to follow thereby negating the positive event and then some. That would call for some serious downside surprise. The market has been in a lull for over a month or more.

Certainly, the volatility has been dampened. Here we are 2 nuclear superpowers in almost direct warfare with each other and no one really cares. It is beyond surreal.

I think that’s probably about to change.