Daneric's Elliott Waves

Well, the wave count went about as I expected last night but I did not see it being such one-sided strong market internals. It was a very solid 90%+ up day across the board in the NYSE to include volume and advancers versus decliners. This is a rare event to have a 90%+ up day in both categories.

We have 3 counts to consider after today’s market action.

The first is the primary count of wave (c) of Minute [iv] 3-3-5 expanded flat and that a reversal down is coming very soon within a day or so. The key wave marker for this count is the price low of Minute [i]. Prices cannot go above that. If they did, we have an alternate count, see the second chart.

We have nice channeling still and a bit more room for upside to stay inside the down channel.

The top alternate is that Minor 1 actually finished at Friday’s low, the first subwave of Intermediate (3). This retrace ideally should stay below Fib 75% retrace (the upper gap just below [ii]) or else it would start to resemble our 2nd alternate count which is the third chart and I use the daily for that illustration. remember, I have been trying to determine if Minute [iii] or even Minor 1 has made its price low so it looks like a decent count.

The third count is that Intermediate wave (2) traced three waves to “A”, then three waves down to “B” and this is now the “kickoff” rally to five waves for wave C of a 3-3-5 downward flat Intermediate wave (2) and the rally will likely take many weeks maybe even through Thanksgiving. This would probably be the most painful market pathing for the most players involved, and the strong follow-through today is very bullish.

However, there are many people wanting out of this market and social mood is deteriorating so further price gains through higher resistance levels would be a slog. The red horizontal line is really first resistance and prices are just coming up to it.

Remember, the market “bottomed” below 3600 Friday and the 2-day bounce to 3790 has relatively been “resistance free” so far. Higher price levels above from here things get more serious and that is why this is the 3rd count because we are charting the end times anyways and there exists considerable resistance layers for the market to get back to 4250ish….

But it’s been a very weird market and very turbulent. We could just as well have a 90% down day across the board tomorrow or Friday. Or a tactical nuke could go off…

The only thing that bums me out for the immediate bearish pathing is that headlines like Marketwatch still are very cautious even after the end of today. The contrarian in me says we go higher because I am so used to predicting doom and the opposite happens.

However, we have the end of the world thing going on, so we have that going for us.

Marketwatch is however correct. “This is not healthy” is very true. And those assclowns have to show a needle, yes they suck. yeah, there are a lot of people in pain from the “Covaids” shot.

END TIMES COMMENTARY

If my end times bible prophecy timelines are correct, then Zelenskyy fits the profile of the Antichrist of Revelation. And if Zelenskyy is the Antichrist he will “win”. And if he is the Antichrist, things are going to start to speed up on a global scale as everything has only a few short years left to play out prior to the “Abomination of Desolations” predicted to occur in April 2025. This is when Zelenskyy dies for 3 days and comes back to life and Satan possesses him and the False Prophet sets up a graven image that must be worshipped in order to receive the mark of the beast. This is the implementation of the New World Order as we know it.

One world government, one world religion (Satan), one world currency (mark of the beast – likely a digital currency via implanted chip in the right hand or forehead)

What giant images? How about something like this: Home – The Giant Company

When Zelenskyy declares himself to be the Jewish Messiah – the second coming of “Christ” – that brings peace to the earth and demands to be worshipped, that is when God casts a great delusion globally on the unrighteous so that they will believe the lie. This is when total persecution – The Great Tribulation Jesus spoke of in Matthew 24 – of Christians worldwide will occur. Jesus raptures us in the First Resurrection/Rapture approximately 70 days after the Abominations of Desolations occurs. That is the general outline of things.

But first things first. The Satanists need global war and financial system collapse to break down the old system first. Once global war and famine occur on a large scale, eventually people will clamor for a “solution”. And the globalists will be happy to provide it and it’s called the New World Order. And eventually Zelenskyy will be selected as its leader. Real power given to him by Satan.

But Satan wants us all dead. The bible says in Revelation 12 that he goes after the woman – who represents Eve (mother of all of mankind) – and it ends in a “flood” and the earth swallowed up the flood and then Satan went after Christians. Satan tries to kill off mankind, but God will not allow it. And so, Satan does the next best thing he makes war with the saved Christians and wins through the Antichrist.

How will Satan try to kill all of mankind? Through the use of nuclear weapons would be the obvious answer. But again, God will not allow nuclear annihilation of the earth as the way the world ends. (The bible only suggests that Babylon – USA – is destroyed by nuclear weapons but that is just prior to Armageddon, the day Jesus comes on a white horse with all of us saved and Satan is defeated and locked away in Hell for 1000 years.)

However, I do think there is a very good chance that a tactical nuke or 2 will be used at some point on the planet prior to the Antichrist taking total control. If this occurs, financial collapse will be greatly sped up and a global panic will ensue. The U.S. has about 100 tactical nukes in Europe at 5 NATO bases. Fact Sheet: United States Nonstrategic Nuclear Weapons – Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation (armscontrolcenter.org)

WWI brought us the League of Nations. WWII brought us the United Nations. Both attempts to a global government. WWIII will bring us the New World Order. The 10 nuclear armed nations of the end times will all “agree” to not use nuclear weapons, and this will bring about “peace” on the earth after global turmoil and war. And if this is how peace is brought about, then one must ask, if this is how peace is achieved, it implies that nuclear weapons were actually used as some point.

The world is full of tactical nukes. I don’t think any ICBM’s will be launched prior to the Abominations of Desolations, but there is an excellent chance a tactical nuke will be purposely detonated. And how would anything be proved otherwise if it does? The evidence destroys itself.

Who blew up the Nord stream pipelines? In a normal war, this would have already been celebrated and declared. But in the quest for global chaos, it is nothing but lies coming from most directions.

Do not rule out the use of a tactical nuke somewhere to get the global chaos ball “rolling”.

And China is chomping at the bit to attack Tawain. The weather window of late October/November is almost here. They are likely building forces under the guise of “ramped up military pressure due to provocations of the U.S.” and this is NOT being reported in opposite fashion that the Russian buildup WAS reported. I expect the opposite with Taiwan, and it will be a “surprise” attack. (Although our intelligence can damn well see what is likely going on)

THE COUNTS

There are 3 waves from pink (a) to Friday’s low which could mean that today was “kickoff” of wave (c) of Minute [iv]. Otherwise, the best alt is that Minor 1 of (3) down has occurred. Seems the best count at the moment and the open gap at about 3750 will be closed.

The Wilshire 5000 finally also dipped beneath the June lows. The best guess count is today could be the Minute [iii] low. Yesterday’s 90% up day was an “e” wave of an expanding triangle. “E” waves make one feels as though a reversal is happening but then prices reverse yet again and make a new low which is exactly what happened. I missed the potential “e” wave partially because Stock charts regularly – for whatever reason – ruins the Wilshire chart to where you have to “mask” the glitch price moves in order to count waves properly.

And it could be that again, I am shortchanging Minute [iii] low and it hasn’t happened yet.

The SPX presents the best view at the moment and the expanding triangle count that faked everyone out yesterday including me. But I have been warning, it’s best not to assume wave bounces in a nasty bear market. Even though yesterday was a very solid market internal day, the overnight futures were easily manipulated into opening a megagap lower. So, the “conviction” to buying this market is still not there for more than a day bounce, at least for now.

Again, we can label today as Minute [iii] price low, but it would look better if it finished a bit lower, bounce hard in Minute [iv], and then bleed much lower in finishing Minor 1 of (3) down.

This market is very volatile day in and day out. The very volatility is bearish, and any bounce is considered an opportunity to “get out”.

Dollar met the upper trendline as was suggested a few weeks or so ago.

China breaking down? That very long term trendline is key. Of course, if this is the end of the world as we know it, it’s going to break under sooner rather than later. And then once Pooh Bear is “elected” dictator for life next month, he attacks Taiwan.

Late October/November is the best weather window for a cross-strait invasion. Otherwise, they have to wait another whole year in my humble opinion. I think it comes this year. They are itching to fight, and Biden is at his most vulnerable as he barely knows what day it is. Are we living in the Twilight Zone or what?

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Most of “Christianity” pollutes salvation and mixes it with self “works” and that is why the path is narrow to Heaven and few be saved. Few actually trust on Jesus 100% and what he did for us and instead divide their trust mostly on themselves.

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And here is the simple eternal gospel:

UPDATE:

I meant to talk about the gas pipelines sabotage. I predicted this back in April and it was very surreal to see it not happen until now. But it happened. My blog post on 21 April 2022 Elliott Wave Update ~ 21 Apr 2022 – Daneric’s Elliott Waves (danericselliottwaves.org)

And the key snippet:

Sooner or later, Russia’s pipelines will be sabotaged. It is a surreal situation. Europe is shipping weapons to Ukrainians to kill Russians yet buy their gas from them. At some point it would be logical to blow up the pipelines. It wouldn’t be hard. I imagine that is being planned for and the “green light” hasn’t yet been given. But it is coming.

And so finally the “green light” had been given and my bet would be that Babylon USA is responsible as we haven’t complained very much about it since it happened. From what I understand there are still other pipelines operating from Russia to Europe some actually through Ukraine that are still flowing gas.

Here is my next prediction: at some point ALL of Russia’s pipelines to Europe will be cutoff, shutdown, sabotaged or whatever. The fact that “de facto” war exists between Russia and Europe will eventually lead to the real-world scenario that trading in energy goods actually stops between the two completely if it hasn’t already.

ORIGINAL POST

The primary count is that Minute [iii] of Minor 1 of Intermediate (3) ended at yesterday’s low. The overnight futures which at one point, were indicating yet again a lower low, recovered upon the “news” of the Bank of England panicking and doing more QE to support their collapsing bond market.

Ok, so tonight is just one chart and I put a lot of information on it for the purposes of tonight’s market price action comments. Several people have emailed me recognizing that the price move from where Intermediate (2) is labeled seems to be a clear “3” wave move to yesterday’s low. And it is. And since we had a clear 3 waves from the June low to (2), with today’s sharp rally, it could be the “kickoff” of a Minor wave C of Intermediate wave (2); a 3-3-5 flat count.

And of course, it is a possibility and is the most bullish count we can dream up at the moment. But first things first. The illustration on the SPX chart below shows that prices in the SPX alone would have to climb another 4.5% – some 170 SPX points from today’s close – to be a real challenge of wave overlap with Minute [i] which would be a violation of Elliott wave counting rules. That is the key price level we look at before we change our medium-term counts.

And not only that, but an Intermediate wave (2) flat involves much more than a 4.5% rise from today’s close. It involves prices travelling back toward the 4300 level. And this would take some time. The slope of price rise would probably take until Thanksgiving holiday late November. Am I saying this cannot happen? Of course it could, all I am saying is first things first.

Therefore, the primary count remains that Minute [iii] of Minor 1 bottomed and the market is bouncing in a potential sharp Minute [iv] of 1 of (3). And yes, it was an algo driven day from deep oversold conditions and this is what happens in a developing nasty bear market. Just one look at 2008 will confirm the subwave bounces were stupendous.

The bottom line is I expect the SPX to close the recent gap down of which today’s prices started to poke into near the close. And after that gap is closed, market players will emerge, and more selling will ensue taking prices down in a Minute [v] of Minor 1 of (3) down.

That’s the call. Lots of people wanting to get out of this market. Higher prices above here should bring out more selling.

I’m posting my spreadsheet of Daniel’s 70th week and how to solve in one workbook. Please feel free to distribute:

THE COUNTS:

I have to use the SPX because the Wilshire had a “glitch” today as it sometimes does. It’s the same count basically from a recent squiggle standpoint. Basically, the idea is this: We are trying to determine the Minute [iii] of 1 wave low. Then Minute [iv] and [v] takes the market to the Minor 1 low of Intermediate (3) proper. An “ideal” wave would take Minor 1 low well beneath the Intermediate (1) low so in that sense this chart below “seems about right”.

And yes, lower low in the SPX today under the June low.

First day of “panic” last Friday.

Japan too will crack wide open and yields will soar…and it will be a glorious panic of the Ponzi they are running over there.

And finally, just a guess on the squiggles. Basically, the overall idea is that we are looking to confirm Minute [iii] of 1 down. It may have bottomed today as the Wilshire probed slightly lower lows than what prices did the previous trading Friday.

Or I could be “shortchanging” the count and it is on the verge of a major downdraft taking the market well below the June lows. I actually like the thought of that as it makes sense. But until all the indexes crack beneath the June low, we’ll just count them as we see them.

This is a cool chart. I’ve shown it months before.

Prices breaking under the June 2022 low in the NYSE and DJIA.

China also breaking lower. Bad omen for global social mood. I have of course been predicting China invades Taiwan and the global war goes “hot”.

Wilshire counts. Gving the benefit of the doubt again to the market and counting today’s low as wave (iii) of [iii] of 1 of (3). Wave (iv) could close today’s SPX gap down.

The most bearish count. This proposes that it hasn’t even begun yet to collapse. Allows for an even a robust bounce On Monday but the bottom falls out after that.

If the primary count is correct, the market is about to experience wave (iii) of [iii] of 1 of (3) down. This is not the true “third of a third” that is sometimes talked about, but it should still see some very elevated selling pressure. Prices should move toward the June lows and then surpass even lower. The “job” of five Minute-sized subwaves of Minor 1 of (3) down is to advance prices well beneath Intermediate (1).

The true “third of a third” – wave (iii) of [iii] of 3 of (3) – is still quite some time and price from here. Even so, elevated selling pressure should be expected soon.

The weekly shows an “idealized” pathing down for Intermediate (3) of which has really only just begun if this count is correct. And I realize it is a presumptuous count, but that is the theory.

I mentioned a week ago, there are higher powers in play (Satan) and Powell has probably been told to “do nothing to help the market”. And now I laugh as I surmised yesterday, the Witches of Congress, led by Elizabeth Warren, are already screaming for Powell’s head. LOL!

CPCE. Still bullish in a sense. Not one day yet has the ratio crept over .90 which is not even a 1:1. It is my theory and belief that the coming super bear market will see readings such as the CPCE elevate to sustained averages that have never been sustained before. 10-day and maybe 30-day averages over a 1:1 ratio with puts being dominant. But alas, that is a far way off for now. But that is my thinking.

Like Robert Prechter of EWI has stated, things have been so bullish for so long, that the coming bear market will begin to see things reverse in such a way that looking at “technicals” as viewed through the lens of old bull market interpretation will fail miserably. But again, we haven’t even had the first real panic.

Another example is that the Dollar should at some point in the future, reach higher levels that the early 1980’s. It is not the dollar that “collapses” first, it is the bonds you dummies! (I have been saying that for over a decade). People sell bonds…and get dollars in return.

At some point, when the global financial collapse is complete, the need to restructure the world based on the “mark of the beast” global digital currency system will be rolled out.

Waiting for China to crack further. War comes at the low points of waves. That 16-year trendline is key.

And finally, in reality, look where the market is and was not so long ago. Why would it not be able to survive even a small hiccup? It’s the global debt load of course. A Ponzi scheme must always expand or else it cascades upon itself. Folks, the global financial fraud is in fact a Ponzi scheme and it won’t take much to tip it over.

That which cannot go on forever, won’t. Only God and the gift of eternal life goes on forever.

UPDATE: Some quick links to get you up to speed on end times stuff:

Marching to Zion – documentary (Full Movie). God’s chosen people. Pastor Steven Anderson. – YouTube

Pastor Steven Anderson ‘The Book Of Revelation’ Verse-By-Verse Bible Study : Pastor Steven L. Anderson : Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming : Internet Archive

After the Tribulation – Full Movie – YouTube

Update: This caught my eye. Globalists calling for repentance LOL. Zelenskyy a key speaker and Biden scheduled Wednesday. Watch them pledge fealty – yet again – to Zelenskyy, the “little horn” of the Book of Daniel. Watch Biden demonize Republicans once again. Within a year or so, the demonization will switch to Christians and persecution and tribulation for the saved will begin in earnest. For now, Satan is trying to wreck the world and kill as many people as he can (through things like vaccines, wars, and coming famines).

First things first: global financial system collapse followed by global economic collapse.

‘We Cannot Go on Like This’ — U.N. Chief Guterres Wants Global Support (breitbart.com)

Again, there is nothing to dissuade me from my end of the world biblical timeline. (I predicted something to happen on September 8th and something did happen. Guess what that was?)

And if you are wondering how I came up with the dates, the following explains it using the bible for those who can possibly understand. And yes, Dispesnationalism and the pre-trib rapture is a long-running lie of Satan. We’ll have to go through some persecution first. Get yourself ready physically, mentally and most importantly, spiritually.

Get saved. It is as easy as drinking a glass of water or walking through a door.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PffhcV-xBks

ORIGINAL POST

Obvious tomorrow will probably be a volatile day. There is a very real possibility that the Fed does a surprise 1 point rate hike tomorrow in an effort to “shock” the markets into a spiral collapse.

I don’t have today’s data yet, but the market is signaling a 1-point hike is a possibility. Once the 3-month yield moves completely above the 1-point target window, that should trigger a hike of 1 point. Again, it is a close call.

Wave count-wise, the small move lower actually makes the move from [ii] 5 small waves down which takes the Minute [ii] downward flat or expanded flat a backburner possibility. Instead, we label today’s move to a lower low wave (i) of [iii] of 1 of (3) down.

If this is the case, we could get a further bounce in wave (ii) tomorrow that backtests the broken neckline and then Fed news comes out, a full 1-point hike, and markets hate it and rip lower. Would be a perfect bear scenario, but things rarely work out as intended.

Otherwise, the 3/4 point is fully priced in I’m not sure what other “guidance” the puppets at the Fed can say or do at this point. They cannot control social mood as much as they think they have that power.

In my opinion, since I am predicting the end of the world and Satan is here on earth orchestrating a global collapse so that the NWO can form from its ashes, the Fed will do everything in its power to not help the markets. However, they don’t want direct blame which is bound to happen no matter what happens from the likes of Congress women witches.

The wave (ii) target is a backtest of the broken neckline.

Speaking of wave counts, both the 10-year note and 30-year bond prices have reached a minimum count of 5 waves down. One could surmise they are due for the biggest bond rally since they both peaked in 2020.

What would spark a rush back into bonds? A total stock market collapse? Maybe that is the Fed’s real goal. Not to help anyone but to stave off their own sure demise for a little while longer.

If there were any doubts the 40-year bond bull market is over, the chart below says it all.

Global war is coming. China awaits for a late year weather window over the Strait of Taiwan. They say October/November is the best window during the year.

Putin about to announce something bigger. The biggest reason Putin hasn’t already gone “scorched” earth, is that it could trigger a NATO response and the war goes “hot” for NATO vs. Russia. NATO vs. China soon to follow.

They have already baited Putin into his “SMO” but Babylon USA is trying to trigger a bigger war response by Russia and goad them into crossing some invisible line. For instance, if Russia was to knock out all power and water to Ukraine, one could easily make the argument that an unprecedented humanitarian crisis is unfolding just before winter and that NATO must now “occupy” to protect tens of millions. or go “war hot” with the excuse that they had no choice but to respond.

Things will only get worse from here. And besides, I tend to think Putin and Xi are “in on it” and are wrecking their countries just as much as we accuse the western powers of purposely wrecking the west. All for the sake of Satan and the New World Order takeover of the world. The bible says it WILL happen.

And Zelenskyy fits the description of the Antichrist of Revelation like a glove. And if he is, he holds real power. The world leaders haven’t pledged fealty to him for nothing you know.

There is wave evidence the market may bounce yet again from here to somewhere in or above the huge 65-point SPX open chart gap down forming either a downward Minute [ii] 3-3-5 flat or expanded flat if prices go above (a) of [ii].

So, the primary count is that Minute [ii] is forming some form of “flat” count.

A closer look at the wave structure and we have 3 waves up to (a) and objectively, only 3 waves down to (b). To finish off this count, we should get a 5-wave impulse structure to form wave (c).

We have wave structure evidence from 2008 in which Minute [ii] of 1 of (3) formed a flat count before falling over and heading to new market lows forming wave 1 of (3) down. The difference between 2008 and 2022 is that 2008 was about one half the percentage price drops (and bounces). 2022 is much more extreme. Minute [i] of 1 of (3) is 10% drop in 2022 vs. about a 4.5% drop in 2008.

The most bearish count is shown below. This implies the market will drop hard probably starting tomorrow. Consider this the alt count. Again, overnight futures will be telling perhaps.

The SPX did fail to close above the lost support of 3900 barely today and that may be viewed as bearish by traders and algorithms. We’ll see. Last 2 days could have been a “head fake” lower prior to taking the market up to close that huge SPX open chart gap down.

Better it be closed now or never.

The daily chart does show positive divergence on the RSI which even suggests prices will go above wave (a) and form a proper expanded flat count versus a downward flat.

Yeah, I know, another 5-7% market move up in the opposite direction? Yet another violent shake out of bears and a chase-the-market retailers and the too-soon overly bearish bets of hedge funds? Probably. A market meant to frustrate all.

China. Similar count, similar spot. Seems to be cracking bearish.

A solid break of the long-running upwards trendline does not portend well for social mood outlook of China. A break of this trendline will likely bring war.