Daneric's Elliott Waves

COMMENTARY

I have not much commented on biblical end times prophecies in the past many months mainly because all I had to say is collected in many previous posts and it is exhausting to re-write the same themes over and over. I have however made a new link list to the left where you can read some of my main posts on biblical end times events. I’ll do a major scan and keep adding links to the list as I find them. Additionally, within each post are many links provided that will keep a reader engaged for many hours. For the most part, the links are consistent with each other there shouldn’t be too much “evolving” views on things although you may find some minor things here or there.

The bottom line is I still believe the Tribulation as foretold by Jesus himself began on or about 21 September 2021 and the first major thing we need to see is global warfare. No warfare, no tribulation is what I have consistently been saying. The last major post was on 4th November asking, “When is the second horse (total world war) of the Apocalypse?” I answered generally that no later than 22 Sep 2022 but more specifically 15th of June 2022 is a more likely date. So far, things seem on track for that possible outcome.

I won’t blog too much about the current Ukraine war other than the self-proclaimed member of the Jewish religion, Zelensky has plunged his country into war and is inviting a world war by demanding no-fly zones by NATO. It is idiotic and I feel for the people of the Ukraine. Putin has real concerns, and this war could have been avoided. The West, particularly the United States, has pushed for this war for over a decade. Ukraine is a puppet. The United States have encouraged Ukrainian belligerence toward Russia. And now we have idiotic Senators calling for outright assassination of leader in charge of the world’s biggest nuclear arsenal. This is not to let Russia off the hook, Putin’s pride and vainglory has clouded his mind. This is not Georgia, Crimea or Belarus. The West for whatever reason (evil) has decided Ukraine is the rock they will die on. And so be it.

Putin has no way out. The world-wide “rules-based system” that has been in place for decades is over yet not many realize it just yet. There will be no going back. I do think this is the start of the global war to come. If China attacks Taiwan (likely) that will seal the deal. Incidentally, the United States has been provoking China by encouraging Taiwan belligerence, much like they did with Ukrainian antogonism toward Russia. The Uniparty ungodly politicians have run the same playbook in both countries. We got the Russian bear pissed off by provocation through our Ukrainian policies and the same will happen with Taiwan. We have provoked China in much the same way through encouraging “Taiwanese independence”. When war comes to Taiwan, what will happen then?

None of it makes sense. Unless of course you view things as I do through end times biblical events and then it makes perfect sense. The satanic globalists are purposely wrecking the world. They have declared war on their own populations after undermining them for decades. Ultimately Satan is behind it all and he will prevail over the earth right up until Jesus comes back and raptures the remaining Christians and resurrects the dead in Christ into glorified bodies. And then all hell will break loose on earth as God’s wrath will be furious to the billions of unbelievers left behind. That’s about how I see things.

So, what next? I believe the Ukrainian conflict will spread and a new conflict between China and Taiwan will occur within the 3 months or so. 15 June perhaps. At any rate, the old-world order has now been broken for good no matter what happens in Ukraine. Putin might win in a week or so but what does that matter? Can he occupy the country safely? No. Does Russia quickly get invited back into old world order way of doing things? I doubt it.

The old world has now begun to unravel and there is no putting it back together again. It was done on purpose and Satan and his globalist minions (political world leaders, usual suspects, etc.) are behind it all. The New World Order transition has begun.

The funny thing (or not so funny) is both Putin and Zelensky are current members of the World Economic Forum. I don’t see anyone urging the fat sicko pervert Klaus Schwab to kick either of them out just yet. They are both surely going to burn in Hell.

THE COUNTS

The best count is that the market is working itself up to a major panic “third of a third” wave down at multiple degrees.

The Wilshire closed beneath horizontal support. In my estimation the prices are on the verge of a cascade event eventually reaching the red horizontal line.

DJIA working its way lower.

The Composite closed beneath bear market territory – 20% down.

As did the Germans.

Yet the CPCE has shown no real signs of panic yet. And this suggests there is much more selling that is required. Friday’s close is shown. Extreme leverage very much works in reverse.

It’s a safe bet the FED will be forced to raise rates at the FOMC meeting next week. If the market 3- and 6-month rates are impulsing up, who knows, we may be facing a 1/2 point hike depending on what happens to short term rates this week.

One would think that eventually Russia’s oil and gas exports will be cutoff. It’s a very strange and dangerous war that seems to be escalating out of control.

I have been predicting world war to occur this year and I really don’t see how the world gets out of this mess. China will probably attack Taiwan next.

There are two basic competing primary wave counts in the Wilshire 5000 at the moment. The first is that the current rebound is merely a subwave (ii) of [iii] of 3 down and it will turn down sooner rather than later and prices will be capped from going to much higher. The chart below shows the count. At most we have about a week or so and perhaps prices top out at or near the blue downtrend line.

The second count is similar in structure yet is a more sustained rally scenario in both time and price. Instead of a minuette subwave (ii) we are actually looking at Intermediate (2) and it will take some time to develop. Yet prices should not reach a new all-time high so regardless both counts are similar in that regard. There is a lot going for this count including that market internals have been actually tame relative to the outsized VIX moves.

The NASDAQ Composite supports the count above in that it too has a very good 5 wave structure down which implies a corrective of the entire 20+ % drop is being corrected upwards before a continuation of bearish price action.

CONCLUSION

There is a myriad of reasons to support both counts at the moment. The more bearish count “predicts” that a 90% down day across the board in both volume and declining issues is “due” very, very soon, yet it hasn’t even come close to happening which can be seen as both bearish and bullish.

Bullish in the sense that the dip is being aggressively bought and selling has been orderly since the November peak. Yet that can also be gauged as bearish. The dip buying fever has not been broken and only a bear market can break that fever. Teh NASDAQ briefly dipped into bear market territory yet was bid up again.

For instance, Elliott Wave International (click my links to left to become a FREE club member) showed that the commitment of traders report on Friday reached an all-time high Large Specs “long” stance. So, despite a possible WWIII starting, they are as bullish as ever buying the dip and adding to the long positions. Though this is not a great “timing” sentiment, it is very illustrative that despite what you hear, you can see what the market is doing; and that is speculative buyers have remained excessively bullish which can be viewed as ultimately bearish.

But again, this is not a great timing chart. So, we await to see over the next few days of what count will prevail.

I favor the more bearish count in part because the SPX and DJIA have not yet had a bonafide 5 waves down.

The DJIA count shows the conundrum. There is room for more price advance yet keeping in line with the overall wave structure. The DJIA could advance another 3% or so over the next week or so and the wave structure shown below would remain perfectly intact.

Intraday Update:

Although the market has rallied nearly straight up since yesterday’s low, I would like to remind those that recall the exact same wave structure one-two, one-two, one-two setup in 2008 just prior to the panic plunge in October 2008.

The Wilshire 5000 rallied over 11% in a matter of hours, yet it still only formed a temporary subwave [ii] peak. In today’s case, I am proposing the same is happening. This is a third wave “two” and once it peaks and reverses there will only be sellers and the shorts will be wary of more shorting.

I only show a small window on this chart so you can see the swift rally. The second chart shows the bigger picture of 2008-2009.

As you can see, the wave [ii] was the last frantic attempt to maintain prices prior to the middle part of the plunge.

Today’s chart. Obviously different timelines and price levels, but the wave structure is what matters. I propose this is the final wave (ii) peak forming prior to the plunge to come in the harshest part of a five wave move – the “third of a third”. It has rallied approximately 6.8% not even close yet to matching of the percentage it rallied in 2008. So, it has more room to run if it needs.

Hey if it doesn’t happen, we’ll know it huh?

I’ll have more after the market closes.

The West’s sudden obsession with “Ukraine” over the past many weeks is just an engineered distraction from all the totalitarianism and failed “vaccine” campaigns going on in the so-called “democratic nations”. We have been provoking Putin for years. Who cares if Ukraine is swallowed whole back into the Russia? Adrenochrome-fueled Biden pushes the narrative. The compliant faggot media dutifully regurgitates the propaganda.

It is Ukraine where Biden enriched his family fortune with crack-smoking Hunter as the front man taking bribes from the Ukrainian oligarchy. Don’t think that Putin doesn’t know every detail. Who knows what kind of blackmail the Ukrainians and Russians have on the Bidens? Perhaps it’s just that simple. The media ignores this angle. It all makes me sick. I couldn’t give a rat’s ass anymore.

It’s all theatre for the stupid and gullible. And if you took the Covid “jab” and do not regret it, that makes you the target for the propaganda. Well done.

The problem is when you unleash and provoke a war, things don’t usually go as planned. This could be the beginning of the world wars I have been predicting to happen no later than June 2022. Directed by Satan and the Antichrist himself. We shall soon see. Surely buy the dip!

THE COUNTS

I was going to get very detailed in the market action analysis today. But I’ll make it simple. We have 5 waves down on both the Wilshire 5000 and Composite. Perhaps this is simply telling us this is the end of wave (1) down.

Yes, there is a rule violation slightly on the Wilshire where 4 overlaps 1 in price. But it is a very minor violation.

Yet the DJIA and SPX is in a different count and do not exhibit 5 waves down.

Therefore, the Wilshire 5000’s primary count could very well continue to be very bearish. Today, though a robust rebound, was perhaps merely just another wave two prior to the bigger plunge of (iii) of [iii] of 3 down. I prefer this more bearish count until proven otherwise.

And that gives us a target box for Minuette (ii). When the relief short-covering rally ends, prices should plunge lower and this time there will be less shorts because they will have been shaken out. And we’ll have a true panic day versus the orderly selling and market moving that has occurred so far.

If this last major horizontal support is lost, prices should tumble very quickly in wave [iii] of 3 down. The selling has been very orderly so far.

Technically, the Composite has confirmed a 5 wave move down at the very least.

The DJIA also has a lower low today. Probably the best count is the ending expanding diagonal triangle as pointed out by Robert Prechter of EWI.

Primary squiggle count below. Basically, the primary count is that the market is shaking off excess bearishness and setting bulls up for a massive price plunge for the next major leg down. The current wave [ii]’s purpose – or Minor 2 on the SPX – is to alleviate excess shorts and rope in any remaining hopeful longs and to yo-yo retail. Once this equilibrium occurs, there will be the least amount of market players positioned for the next major market move which would be extreme down in wave [iii] of 3. Many players will be too scared to “short” (as they are being shaken out) and we are past the point of adding many more longs to the market. The public is already fully engorged in stocks.

We can see this better on the Wilshire daily chart. The quick price plunge beneath the neckline (and horizontal support) to Minute [i] created a “trading zone”. The bottom of the zone was traded and now prices are in the middle/top of the zone. Yet we still solidly have significant resistances bearing down on prices.

Therefore, the primary count is still bearish even if prices shake out a bit more to the upside.

The top long-term alternate bullish count whereas some indexes achieve new all-time highs would probably be best illustrated with the DJIA and NYSE counts which for all practical purposes, are the same. Would the Wilshire achieve a new all-time high if the DJIA did? Not necessarily and probably not. The main factor in this would be “time” that the market “holds up” would be extended into Spring 2022.

There is a lot going for this Dow chart in terms of Elliott wave structure. We have (1) – (3), (2) – B of (4) meeting in parallel channel lines. Another aspect is that Intermediate wave (4) has a definite price low. In other words, it has formed a solid price marker for where to exactly mark wave (4) end point. There is nothing ambiguous about it. The same can be said actually of the SPX and Wilshire 5000 for that matter. If it is a wave (4) end point, we have the very price spot where it has occurred. And from that (4) low, it does appear a five wave move to Minor 1 of (5) has occurred. Not so much on the Wilshire 5000 though.

However, one reason not to get so bullish on a potential alternate count of the DJIA is that yields, and junk debt is imploding. This is not consistent with a breakout to new all-time highs. So, I remain overall bearish on the wave counts as the primary counts and also for the discussion at the beginning of this post.

Downside price target for wave (3) on US Treasury 10-year notes.

In terms of percentage, the move from the yield low of 2020 until now has been very sharp and the wave count supports even higher yields in relatively rapid succession. Before 2022 is out, I am looking for the 10-year yield to be back at 2010 levels: 3.5 or above as a minimum with the potential to be much higher. This would collapse the housing market and of course rising yields will implode the (everything) debt bomb that has been building for decades.

“That which cannot go on forever, won’t.” I don’t know who said that or if I even got the quote correct but we are nearing the end of the line for the current worldwide financial system as we know it. And we give the blokes running the world too much credit for being clever and crafty. They are not. Remember, Satanists, psychopaths and sociopaths are stupid by nature. Anyone who would willingly damn themselves for eternity by rejecting Jesus Christ as Lord and Savior is all the clue one needs.

All they are good at in the end is destruction and death. The “vaccine” campaign is proving that.

That is why once this system implodes it will take the literal – real – Antichrist to put it back together again. And in that he will seemingly succeed albeit only for a brief time.

Working a little bit lower today.

The market is getting quite ahead of the FED. It’s hilarious.