Daneric's Elliott Waves

Let’s talk price action, technicals, and other market stuff. Back on the day Russia invaded Ukraine, my market commentary was simple. I stated the following:

I was going to get very detailed in the market action analysis today. But I’ll make it simple. We have 5 waves down on both the Wilshire 5000 and Composite. Perhaps this is simply telling us this is the end of wave (1) down.

So far that morning price low of the day of invasion has held in the Wilshire 5000, DJIA, and SPX. You know what the saying goes…”sell the rumor (in this case war), buy the news (actual war)”. And so, the market has held up technically and the Wilshire has strong positive technical divergence on the RSI. Lower price closes and higher RSI strength. We may simply be in Intermediate wave (2) as was suggested back on the 24th of February.

If that is the case, I would expect – at minimum – a 50% retrace of the price drop from the early November peak.

Again, sell the rumor is the opposite of buying the news. Horrible things have happened since the 24th and the world markets are in distress. Yet, China bounced hard yesterday as did the US markets which now have a very strong 2-day run backed by numerous technical positive divergences.

All this to say is that if this is Intermediate (2), we are likely on the back-end wave C of (2). We had about 3 1/2 months from peak with diverging peaks in the SPX and DJIA so things are a bit disjointed at the Grand Supercycle top which one could expect.

The high red daily volume bars I point out in the chart below seems, at the moment, like a washout. Forced market action lower yet the intraday pivot low was not challenged. I expected a continued rise in heavy volume down pushing prices lower but that hasn’t happened – yet. Advantage: bulls.

A possible squiggle count of (2) using the hourly. Would result in about a 50% retrace perhaps a bit more muted than was suggested with the daily chart above.

Junk perhaps bottomed in its own wave (1) down. This is important because if credit tries to repair itself a bit (nothing ever goes straight down!) the overall market should do the same. But ultimately it will fail. Like the Titanic, the fatal blow has already been dealt and many just do not realize it yet.

So, what would the DJIA and SPX look like if the 24th was the wave (1) actual low? Leading diagonal triangle. It works ok on the dailys at least.

Remember, at a Grand Supercycle top, the waves are going to be in a state of transition going to the top and rolling over. Just look at the way the DJIA counts to its top. Also, a diagonal triangle.

On the DJIA chart below, it could be as simple as prices need to reach back toward the downward red trendline before resuming down in wave (3). As I said, if this is wave (2) we are likely on the tail end of things which being wave three – C – is the strongest and will get everyone excited about the market again before pulling the rug out. This is why the “news” is to be ignored in wave counting. The Ukraine War has demanded that equity prices keep going lower but so far they have not since the opening war salvo. This is the contrarian nature of markets.

But contrarian markets aside, a Ponzi scheme is just that – worth zero. Once a Ponzi scheme is identified it goes (correctly) toward zero despite 100% negative sentiment. There is no “contrarian” saving play. I propose that one day in the future the markets will practically do the same despite negative sentiment for they are mostly all a Ponzi scheme also.

The ultimate price rise would be a backtest of the upper channel line shown on the weekly. That would take prices above Minor 4 of (1) down.

Ok now that we got that count scenario out of the way, let’s look at what we currently actually have as waves. We have a series of one-twos so far and nothing more. Therefore, despite all my fancy market projections stated above, it would really be easy to just rollover and die in an earth-shattering “middle of the third” wave lower. The market is not to be trusted at this point. Roller-coaster waves of 2-3 % swings overnight into the daily sessions is exhausting. A high steady VIX could explode (capitulate) much higher. And although many think that certain markets have already capitulated, the overall US market has not. There has been nothing close to a”90%” downside across-the-board day just yet.

So, despite all the above I’m still bearish until proven otherwise. BUT, if this count is correct, it has run out of options. The market needs to go lower immediately for the bearish count to bear fruit.

A price push to the down trendline would still keep prices below pink (ii). This is still the primary count because until proven otherwise, we have not broken the rule of “lower highs” just yet. “Selling the rip”.

CONCLUSION

Good market technicals and certain wave counts in other indexes suggests we are in wave C of (2) and it has a bit further to play out. YET even so, I primarily count the Wilshire 5000 and until pink wave (ii) as shown on the above chart gets taken out along with the down trendline, the more bearish count remains as primary. I felt I need to address the other option more vocally than I have been.

It comes down to this: a price rise above pink (ii) likely means the Wilshire 5000 is in Intermediate (2). So, despite the positive technicals and what not, until and unless the series of “lower highs” is nullified, the more bearish count remains as primary.

Working its way lower.

Closed beneath significant support.

Yields surging.

LOL, 2 days left until the Fed’s decision on rates. If this is wave three up, they may have to hike a full 1/2 point which would catch the market by surprise.

Junk debt leading the way.

Composite another close well below bear market territory.

Revelation Chapter 13:

7 And it was given unto him to make war with the saints, and to overcome them: and power was given him over all kindreds, and tongues, and nations.

8 And all that dwell upon the earth shall worship him, whose names are not written in the book of life of the Lamb slain from the foundation of the world.

Christians ultimately lose. The Antichrist and Satan wins (on earth). World war and famine is required. We may have the beginning of the end in that regard. Certainly, the Old-World order is broken forever and there is no going back.

Therefore, I welcome the worldwide coming tribulation/warfare/chaos/famine it only means that Christ’s second coming is imminent. Keep the faith. Despite what your Pastor told you (pre-tribulation rapture), it is not biblical. Christians must endure the tribulation. We do however escape God’s wrath. There is a difference. Read my blog post links to the left to understand.

Again, as I have said many times before, no world-wide tribulation, war, famine = no end times events. I don’t think this requires a nuclear weapon device to be released but it would certainly speed things along if it did happen. I don’t have any fear either way because Jesus Christ wins in the end regardless.

Based on the bible, I happen to think that nuclear devices will probably not occur in the tribulation, but it will occur in God’s wrath period. If we do have nuclear devices triggered in the tribulation, it probably will only be a few. But even only a couple will bring about terrible consequences.

The idiot politicians and pundits are playing a dangerous game with the Great Bear Russia, and they are doing it on purpose. I happen to think Satan is behind them all spurring them on. Putin is just crazy enough to do it. We are in danger of a nuclear device going off more so than we were prior to the 1980’s. The reason is we have forgotten the first-hand lessons of nuclear disaster.

This has a certain “feel” as if it were 1914 all over again. Nations behaving in a belligerent manner for no other reason than they have no experience with mass warfare and carnage and do not respect the power of negative social mood. All the skirmishes and subwars between 1945 and 2022 are but a minor nuisance compared to two or more nuclear nations squaring off in a real hot war. And the United States is pushing and poking and prodding the two others – Russia and China – into war.

We – the United States – are the great whore of Babylon. We will be destroyed by nuclear weapons just prior to the Battle of Armageddon. I won’t be here to see that; the rapture will have occurred 3 1/3 years earlier.

THE COUNTS

A so-called tremendous up day yet perhaps just a blip in the overall scheme of things.

Just another roller-coaster day in the stock market. The primary count is that today’s peak price was wave ii of (iii) of [iii] of 3 (down). This infers that the market is on the verge of a massive price loss in wave iii of (iii) of [iii] of 3 down. A ‘third of a third” at multiple degrees of trend.

Yet even so, we still have sub options to the primary count. The market is fighting losses every step of the way that ultimately can be viewed as bearish overall. The bull market mentality is still very strong and the only thing that will “break” that mentality is a bear market wipeout.

The top alternate count of significance is shown below. Today’s total equity Wilshire 5000 volume was the 4th highest on record.

COMMENTARY

I have not much commented on biblical end times prophecies in the past many months mainly because all I had to say is collected in many previous posts and it is exhausting to re-write the same themes over and over. I have however made a new link list to the left where you can read some of my main posts on biblical end times events. I’ll do a major scan and keep adding links to the list as I find them. Additionally, within each post are many links provided that will keep a reader engaged for many hours. For the most part, the links are consistent with each other there shouldn’t be too much “evolving” views on things although you may find some minor things here or there.

The bottom line is I still believe the Tribulation as foretold by Jesus himself began on or about 21 September 2021 and the first major thing we need to see is global warfare. No warfare, no tribulation is what I have consistently been saying. The last major post was on 4th November asking, “When is the second horse (total world war) of the Apocalypse?” I answered generally that no later than 22 Sep 2022 but more specifically 15th of June 2022 is a more likely date. So far, things seem on track for that possible outcome.

I won’t blog too much about the current Ukraine war other than the self-proclaimed member of the Jewish religion, Zelensky has plunged his country into war and is inviting a world war by demanding no-fly zones by NATO. It is idiotic and I feel for the people of the Ukraine. Putin has real concerns, and this war could have been avoided. The West, particularly the United States, has pushed for this war for over a decade. Ukraine is a puppet. The United States have encouraged Ukrainian belligerence toward Russia. And now we have idiotic Senators calling for outright assassination of leader in charge of the world’s biggest nuclear arsenal. This is not to let Russia off the hook, Putin’s pride and vainglory has clouded his mind. This is not Georgia, Crimea or Belarus. The West for whatever reason (evil) has decided Ukraine is the rock they will die on. And so be it.

Putin has no way out. The world-wide “rules-based system” that has been in place for decades is over yet not many realize it just yet. There will be no going back. I do think this is the start of the global war to come. If China attacks Taiwan (likely) that will seal the deal. Incidentally, the United States has been provoking China by encouraging Taiwan belligerence, much like they did with Ukrainian antogonism toward Russia. The Uniparty ungodly politicians have run the same playbook in both countries. We got the Russian bear pissed off by provocation through our Ukrainian policies and the same will happen with Taiwan. We have provoked China in much the same way through encouraging “Taiwanese independence”. When war comes to Taiwan, what will happen then?

None of it makes sense. Unless of course you view things as I do through end times biblical events and then it makes perfect sense. The satanic globalists are purposely wrecking the world. They have declared war on their own populations after undermining them for decades. Ultimately Satan is behind it all and he will prevail over the earth right up until Jesus comes back and raptures the remaining Christians and resurrects the dead in Christ into glorified bodies. And then all hell will break loose on earth as God’s wrath will be furious to the billions of unbelievers left behind. That’s about how I see things.

So, what next? I believe the Ukrainian conflict will spread and a new conflict between China and Taiwan will occur within the 3 months or so. 15 June perhaps. At any rate, the old-world order has now been broken for good no matter what happens in Ukraine. Putin might win in a week or so but what does that matter? Can he occupy the country safely? No. Does Russia quickly get invited back into old world order way of doing things? I doubt it.

The old world has now begun to unravel and there is no putting it back together again. It was done on purpose and Satan and his globalist minions (political world leaders, usual suspects, etc.) are behind it all. The New World Order transition has begun.

The funny thing (or not so funny) is both Putin and Zelensky are current members of the World Economic Forum. I don’t see anyone urging the fat sicko pervert Klaus Schwab to kick either of them out just yet. They are both surely going to burn in Hell.

THE COUNTS

The best count is that the market is working itself up to a major panic “third of a third” wave down at multiple degrees.

The Wilshire closed beneath horizontal support. In my estimation the prices are on the verge of a cascade event eventually reaching the red horizontal line.

DJIA working its way lower.

The Composite closed beneath bear market territory – 20% down.

As did the Germans.

Yet the CPCE has shown no real signs of panic yet. And this suggests there is much more selling that is required. Friday’s close is shown. Extreme leverage very much works in reverse.

It’s a safe bet the FED will be forced to raise rates at the FOMC meeting next week. If the market 3- and 6-month rates are impulsing up, who knows, we may be facing a 1/2 point hike depending on what happens to short term rates this week.

One would think that eventually Russia’s oil and gas exports will be cutoff. It’s a very strange and dangerous war that seems to be escalating out of control.

I have been predicting world war to occur this year and I really don’t see how the world gets out of this mess. China will probably attack Taiwan next.

There are two basic competing primary wave counts in the Wilshire 5000 at the moment. The first is that the current rebound is merely a subwave (ii) of [iii] of 3 down and it will turn down sooner rather than later and prices will be capped from going to much higher. The chart below shows the count. At most we have about a week or so and perhaps prices top out at or near the blue downtrend line.

The second count is similar in structure yet is a more sustained rally scenario in both time and price. Instead of a minuette subwave (ii) we are actually looking at Intermediate (2) and it will take some time to develop. Yet prices should not reach a new all-time high so regardless both counts are similar in that regard. There is a lot going for this count including that market internals have been actually tame relative to the outsized VIX moves.

The NASDAQ Composite supports the count above in that it too has a very good 5 wave structure down which implies a corrective of the entire 20+ % drop is being corrected upwards before a continuation of bearish price action.

CONCLUSION

There is a myriad of reasons to support both counts at the moment. The more bearish count “predicts” that a 90% down day across the board in both volume and declining issues is “due” very, very soon, yet it hasn’t even come close to happening which can be seen as both bearish and bullish.

Bullish in the sense that the dip is being aggressively bought and selling has been orderly since the November peak. Yet that can also be gauged as bearish. The dip buying fever has not been broken and only a bear market can break that fever. Teh NASDAQ briefly dipped into bear market territory yet was bid up again.

For instance, Elliott Wave International (click my links to left to become a FREE club member) showed that the commitment of traders report on Friday reached an all-time high Large Specs “long” stance. So, despite a possible WWIII starting, they are as bullish as ever buying the dip and adding to the long positions. Though this is not a great “timing” sentiment, it is very illustrative that despite what you hear, you can see what the market is doing; and that is speculative buyers have remained excessively bullish which can be viewed as ultimately bearish.

But again, this is not a great timing chart. So, we await to see over the next few days of what count will prevail.

I favor the more bearish count in part because the SPX and DJIA have not yet had a bonafide 5 waves down.

The DJIA count shows the conundrum. There is room for more price advance yet keeping in line with the overall wave structure. The DJIA could advance another 3% or so over the next week or so and the wave structure shown below would remain perfectly intact.

Intraday Update:

Although the market has rallied nearly straight up since yesterday’s low, I would like to remind those that recall the exact same wave structure one-two, one-two, one-two setup in 2008 just prior to the panic plunge in October 2008.

The Wilshire 5000 rallied over 11% in a matter of hours, yet it still only formed a temporary subwave [ii] peak. In today’s case, I am proposing the same is happening. This is a third wave “two” and once it peaks and reverses there will only be sellers and the shorts will be wary of more shorting.

I only show a small window on this chart so you can see the swift rally. The second chart shows the bigger picture of 2008-2009.

As you can see, the wave [ii] was the last frantic attempt to maintain prices prior to the middle part of the plunge.

Today’s chart. Obviously different timelines and price levels, but the wave structure is what matters. I propose this is the final wave (ii) peak forming prior to the plunge to come in the harshest part of a five wave move – the “third of a third”. It has rallied approximately 6.8% not even close yet to matching of the percentage it rallied in 2008. So, it has more room to run if it needs.

Hey if it doesn’t happen, we’ll know it huh?

I’ll have more after the market closes.

The West’s sudden obsession with “Ukraine” over the past many weeks is just an engineered distraction from all the totalitarianism and failed “vaccine” campaigns going on in the so-called “democratic nations”. We have been provoking Putin for years. Who cares if Ukraine is swallowed whole back into the Russia? Adrenochrome-fueled Biden pushes the narrative. The compliant faggot media dutifully regurgitates the propaganda.

It is Ukraine where Biden enriched his family fortune with crack-smoking Hunter as the front man taking bribes from the Ukrainian oligarchy. Don’t think that Putin doesn’t know every detail. Who knows what kind of blackmail the Ukrainians and Russians have on the Bidens? Perhaps it’s just that simple. The media ignores this angle. It all makes me sick. I couldn’t give a rat’s ass anymore.

It’s all theatre for the stupid and gullible. And if you took the Covid “jab” and do not regret it, that makes you the target for the propaganda. Well done.

The problem is when you unleash and provoke a war, things don’t usually go as planned. This could be the beginning of the world wars I have been predicting to happen no later than June 2022. Directed by Satan and the Antichrist himself. We shall soon see. Surely buy the dip!

THE COUNTS

I was going to get very detailed in the market action analysis today. But I’ll make it simple. We have 5 waves down on both the Wilshire 5000 and Composite. Perhaps this is simply telling us this is the end of wave (1) down.

Yes, there is a rule violation slightly on the Wilshire where 4 overlaps 1 in price. But it is a very minor violation.

Yet the DJIA and SPX is in a different count and do not exhibit 5 waves down.

Therefore, the Wilshire 5000’s primary count could very well continue to be very bearish. Today, though a robust rebound, was perhaps merely just another wave two prior to the bigger plunge of (iii) of [iii] of 3 down. I prefer this more bearish count until proven otherwise.

And that gives us a target box for Minuette (ii). When the relief short-covering rally ends, prices should plunge lower and this time there will be less shorts because they will have been shaken out. And we’ll have a true panic day versus the orderly selling and market moving that has occurred so far.