Daneric's Elliott Waves

3 intraday reversals bear days in a row. The market probably just experienced a min- “third of a third” down. My attempt here at a squiggle count shows why this may be a “mini” third wave down. The Wilshire 5000 is now clearly impulsing down.

The following chart is a bear market wave thought process based on the extended wave (5) pattern to peak. The theory holds that prices will plunge back to beneath where the final wave (5) started which is just below wave (4). The bigger “oh shit” moment would be [iii] of 3 of (1) down. And specifically, within that structure wave (iii) of [iii] of 3 if you can imagine.

The VIX is still somewhat settled. No panic yet.

DJIA pattern at a key trendline.

And the NYSE is just getting started.

The Composite is now off 15% from absolute peak and clearly lost key support at and above the 14,000 range.

Finally, a print of .82 which I remind you is still biased more bullish than bearish. Not yet reached my panic line for the daily CPCE readings.

Short term head and shoulders target may be where [i] of 3 is eventually marked. The Wilshire daily is oversold for the first time since the panic in early 2020. An oversold market is where the danger can be as it can outright crash.

Another midday reversal and sell into the close. All the major indexes seem to be in agreement.

From a head and shoulders pattern, the downside target in green.

After hugging that cupper channel line for many months, it finally broke back under.

The DOW looks like the NYSE count sort of. There are several ways to label the (4).

Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave International has the pattern as a rare ending expanding diagonal triangle.

One could say the Composite closed under key long term major support.

The Wilshire 5000 has broken its ascending triangle pattern. This is a bearish development. The NASDAQ is more than 10% off its all-time high. Things are heating up. The covid narrative is waning, as even Boris “Knucklehead” Johnson is promising an end to all COVAIDS mandates. We’ll see about that.

The COVID narrative may be waning which means the financial collapse scenario will likely be rolled out here shortly. The global cabal can no longer panic the world with covid how about a good old financial panic? Its primed and insiders have been selling for many, many months at quite a clip.

At the moment, the best count remains the extended (5) for the Wilshire 5000. I know I kind of gave up on that a bit as blue Minor 2 almost made a new high, but the early November high has held. Now all we need is some panic to the downside.

No panic at all in the VIX and the CPCE is primed for upside finally.

I had the Nikkei topping and then it developed this strange contracting triangle pattern where it has no business being and now the triangle is broken which is bearish.

Both the Wilshire 5000 – the total market – and the Nasdaq Composite quietly have now closed today at their lowest since Oct 13th, over 3 months ago.

The most bearish count is below. The market is perhaps at critical spot on the verge of “surprise” downside prices – i.e., “3rd of a 3rd” down. Just think of the Wilshire 5000 as a head and shoulder pattern and the neckline is in danger of breaking.

NYSE counts nicely as “finished”.

GDOW count. One more blip?

Long term upper channel line on the Wilshire was closed under today.

Well, channel lines can be finicky.

Isn’t it amazing that the entire world’s bond market moves in near unison (along with the stock markets). This is strong evidence of social mood theory aligned on a worldwide scale. And yields are finally on the move again – up.

And the 3-month yields have ticked higher. This is the REAL chart that controls whether the FED will raise rates or not. The FED follows, not leads. They are NOT in control of anything.

Silver. It would look great if it finally broke higher into the $40’s. Solid support in the mid $20 range. With inflation roaring, I am surprised this hasn’t taken off yet.

I remind that the Wilshire 5000 topped on 7 November, a full 2 months ago. The most bearish count is below. Although I seemingly gave up on the idea of an extended (5) for the Wilshire because of its persistence, the count is still valid at the moment.

And weekly, since the beginning of the year, its 2 down weeks in a row.

This is the alternate count (or primary if it breaks to new all-time highs) and the price action is range bound as if in a triangle. But many other indexes had broken higher such as the SPX and DJIA and GDOW and NYSE.

The black line is the long-term upper channel line

The GDOW is stretching its legs.

COMMENTARY

The illegal Biden regime had a huge win at the Supreme Court yesterday over the vaccine mandates. All the fake “news” media says it’s a loss for the Biden administration, but the health care mandate was upheld. It gave them a solid foot in the door for further infringement on constitutional rights.

Simply said, the precedent that the government can tell you what you must put in your body has now been set in stone. Huge win actually for the evil people.

All is intact. The GDOW made a new all-time high today.

If there is more “upside surprise” in store, we can probably say that Minor 1` and 2 of (5) has played out on every index we assign this pattern too. Therefore wave 3 of (5) is just underway.

The Wilshire 5000 is still in an ascending triangle type pattern. Until the key wave marker breaks, there is not much else to say. This supports the view that the market trudges on a few more months.

Actually, the key bearish wave marker is probably blue “C” of (4).

GDOW looks interesting. It is no wonder that all the world’s market rises and fall together. It is headed toward a one world government and one world financial system. In effect, it already is.

The Covid dystopia marches onward. Key Supreme Court hearing soon. I predict they will cave to the globalists.

The DJIA, NYSE, S&P500 all made new highs today. The Wilshire 5000’s intraday high is 5 Nov with a closing high 8 Nov. It’s taken about 7 stabs at a new intraday high since but has yet to overcome.

There are 2 patterns on the DJIA: The contracting triangle and expanding ending diagonal triangle.

Even the Global Dow made a new high today.

The DJIA made a new all-time high confirming its overall wave pattern.

We’ll see if the other indexes can follow through. The Wilshire 5000’s all-time high was back in the first week of November.

A thrust indeed has occurred which implies a triangle thrust. The Dow Jones Industrials was a mere 38 points from a new official intraday record and came about the same amount short for a new closing high. Yet the 6 day thrust event is only 50% of the 7 day thrust event that kicked off Intermediate (3). It’s holiday low volume.

And the Transports are lagging.

It is still very much a fractured market. Only the S&P 500 has made new highs. The Wilshire is still lagging. It would not surprise me if this schizoid market would fall apart here and now.

If the Wilshire makes a new high, we will have to abandon the extended wave (5) count and readjust to something simpler.