Daneric's Elliott Waves

Well it took a few weeks but a new all-time high has again been established in the SPX. This is undoubtably the “AI bubble” coming to a peak. How far it will run and how long is a matter of time.

There are probably 5 valid ways to count this massive surge since the April lows and I have adjusted to what seems best at the moment. A clear channel line has been established and I assume another upper strike will occur – my best guess is 6600 SPX or slightly north of that marker in late August. Lets go with that for starters.

A price break beneath Minor blue “4” would indicate that this structure has likely completed. Again, there are enough waves in place to consider it complete but momentum is still on the bulls side so I think it runs further.

But as my analysis per a few months back predicting new all-time highs in the SPX I predicted the DJIA would struggle. The monthly chart tells the story. 4 months in a row it poked at the 45,000 level unable to gain a foothold above. Oct, Nov, Dec (intraday peak), and Jan. Then again last month in July. We seem to be knocking on the door again.

If the DJIA breaks above 45,000 in a solid fashion, I believe it will mark a fantastic “Tulip bulb” blowoff top of the likes that catches everyone by surprise. Every junk DOW stock will be bid to the moon. Likely every junk NASDAQ stock will also be bid. The “Mag 7” tech stocks which has fueled the AI bubble may start to diverge in this scenario and start to drop off ahead of the rest of the blowoff top. So it is getting very interesting.

This is about as simple analysis of the AI bubble you will get but I advise you check out this Substack for all things concerning our tech overlords and the bubble we are all caught up in:

Ed Zitron’s Where’s Your Ed At

Interest rates are starting to signal that .25% September cut. Wow, that will surely save the overstressed out consumer! Well done Fed faggots!

The CPCE bottomed a while ago. Its not a great timing indicator of a turn but and upturn that occurs first prior to a market top is very consistent of overall market behavior.

I don’t know where the (5) of [5] will end up so I didn’t bother to move it. Again, this shows the struggle with the 45,000 level. If it is victorious, we could have market mayhem blowoff top as I stated above.

And thus we come to the Nasdaq. The ultimate bubble created by our tech overlords. LLM “AI” is shitty and trash and worthless and nothing but a lie. But they have nothing else to offer but the dream of being like the most high God in fooling the foolish into believing they can make a bunch of computer code and algorithms as if it can even come 1% close to the ability of the God-created human brain.

It is the ultimate lie and scam born of Satan. And well, it seems appropriate for the final bubble… I do believe we are meeting the end of the world scenario when this bubble finally pops. Our big tech overlords have nothing else to offer.

The “enshittification” of all things is well underway…

Enshittification – Wikipedia

Yeah, still a lazy summer market but today caught my attention. New all-time high in the SPX and a potential topping candle.

Short term, the waves are certainly “enough” to be considered complete. It still has that “rolling over” feel. the feeling that underneath it all smart money is being passed off to dumb money (retail). And then the rug gets pull out.

Is the dollar chart finally coming alive with the passage of the “Genius” act?

A “crack” in the CPCE. Noteworthy. This usually starts pointing up prior to actual prices moving down. That could be the case.

And just as I predicted several months ago, The SPX was headed for new All-time highs and the DOW would struggle to do so. That situation technically remained so far. That is bearish that the other indexes are cracking new highs daily and the main market is some 1000 points beneath…

Just incredible!

Powell didn’t cut because the market sets the rates not the Fed. Had the 3- and 6-month yield move beneath the Fed window, the Fed would have followed. It’s really that simple. The market moves first; the Fed follows.

It’s been 2 weeks, but it’s been a lazy hot summer. My last update I predicted 6300+ and here we are. The upper trendline was hit. The squiggle pattern looks quite mature. It looks tired too. But my upper target range of about 6350 – 6375 is still a possibility.

Ok, well, the SPX got to another all-time high as this blog has had as the primary count for about 2 months since the Zweig Breadth Thrust event in late April. Elliott Wave Update ~ 29 April 2025 – Daneric’s Elliott Waves

In that major update I surmised that the market would take between 2 and 5 months to get where we are today and it did it in the minimum time of 2 months. It’s been quite the shooting star.

But as of today, there are enough waves in place to consider the count complete. Does that mean I think it is complete? No, likely the market will melt up as there is no more resistance. Yet the DJIA still has over 900 points to go to match the SPX and NASDAQ in achieving a new all-time high. It is a fractured market and often that is a bearish trait.

Just looking at simple trendlines, if the market were to hit this long term upper trendline, we are looking at SPX 6350 = 6450ish. This seems likely.

Short term prices are very stretched. Yet it probably will hit the upper trendline which I show at 6300+.

The squiggle count shows that there are already enough waves in place to consider the pattern “done”. However, I’ve probably shortchanged the squiggles in the Minor wave 5… I just wanted to show that Minor 5 of (5) has enough subwaves to be considered mature. We have been following this bullish count since early May. And it has not disappointed.

The GDOW also will probably hit an upper trendline. This is actually a better overall 5 wave pattern from late 2022.

Yet the DOW Industrials are obviously lagging. So many bets will be placed in this index for to catch up with the SPX and NASDAQ. Thus, it may outperform. I can see it challenging its all-time high before all is said and done. But it may come up short verifying the fractured nature of this Ponzi-scheme of a market.

And the poor dollar got hammered since January. But I still believe someday it will eclipse the al-time highs. Maybe its foolish. I think bonds are foolish. People sell bonds into dollars. Not the other way around.

That may mark the Minor wave 4 low. If that’s the case, we are headed to new all-time highs on the SPX.

The recent peak was less than 1.5% from a new all-time high. Will it make it?

Primary count is shown below. I believe we have marked the top of Minor wave 3.

Everything seems on track. The DJIA is lagging badly the SPX which is what I predicted weeks ago. But the count seems sound. The overall target is that the S&P500 makes a new all-time high this summer probably within the next 5 weeks.

This shows a different perspective and a higher wave degree concerning the DOW. I mainly included it because prices are lagging.

The Global DOW has made a new all-time high, however. Significant divergence from the Industrials.

Again, it’s all about the debt loads. The extreme technical oversold condition on the monthly scale has been worked off. This is not a bullish configuration.

All is going accordingly to Satan’s wicked plan: Futures Soar After Trade Court Blocks Trump’s Global Tariffs; White House To Appeal | ZeroHedge

Seems about right. I see by chance, the futures at the moment support a wave (iii) of [v] of 3 up open. We shall see!

Ok, everything is going swimmingly. Pretty strong up day internally.

Resistance becomes support.