Daneric's Elliott Waves

Today’s correction was big enough to consider the top of Minute [iii] has occurred. One such squiggle count is presented below. I feel the market’s best bet is to limit this Minute [iv] and continue higher sooner rather than later. A bigger dip would be damaging. Today’s market internal numbers ended on a high down volume and decliners vs advancers. That’s got to be concerning for bulls who bought this big open chart gap up.

Again, looking at 2007’s final push to another new high occurred in rapid fashion (even though at least 1 degree wave lower) with big waves at the bottom of the structure and smaller at the top. It’s an example of a last market high wave that did not have a perfectly symmetrical structure.

I feel today’s market must do the same to have a chance at a new all-time high. Do it quickly in the summer when trading is thinner. Remember, I may be “bullish” short term for this final wave reaching a new high, but in reality, it still counts as the last. In my eyes, if it squeaks out a new high, its over anyways. I could care less and if does not happen, we are well prepared for an extremely bearish count.

The CPCE reached extreme complacency levels on the 3 day and 10 day moving average. Again, I’d like to point out, there was no real panic in the April’s market downturn. It’s got to be concerning for the bulls that the positioning became so one-sided bullish again so quickly. Rising prices no matter the cause is of course inflationary.

The overall concerning thing for bulls, is interest rates are sticky high and seem to be headed higher after a long consolidation period along the yield curve. The world is bankrupt folks. People are living in a delusional global financial market propped up by Satan himself. It’s not “if” the time will come, but simply “when”. When will the global financial system self-implode? The tariff wars cannot be put back in the bottle. Consumers will pay the price for the tariff increases. Any dummy should know that.

Um, yes Virginia, there has been a long-term trend change! Duh!

One key thing I’m looking for is if the 6-month yield flips higher and again begins to lead the 3 month also back higher. Look for a yield crossover.

And for the hardcore bears who have endured this historic rally since the April low, I still have a chart that in my opinion, would be just fine. If correct, Wave (2) really has stretched itself and I would consider it over. Prices trying to jump back in the old uptrend channel is a typical stopping point and reversal.

A price moves beneath 5650 would be a key wave marker. But thats still 200 points beneath.

The SPX met the Minute wave [iii] x 1.5 of wave [i]. Obviously Minute [iii] can go higher. I gave two basic squiggle counts within the 2 charts:

But overall, from a bigger picture standpoint, we are looking for the top of Minute [iii] of 3. The next significant corrective wave will either be Minute [iv] of 3 or the higher level 4 of (5).

Trump encouraging people to buy stocks again.

I guess the best way to look at the still powerful unfolding Minute [iii] of 3 is to see how much it expands in relationship to Minute [i]. An ideal spot would be a Fib ratio of 1.618 x Minute [i]’s wavelength. So far it has extended a bit beyond 1.38%.

The squiggles will work themselves in due time.

The Global DOW is near a new all-time high along with JUNK.

Again, if prices go above 5845, then the wave count I have labeled is not correct. Wave (iii) of [iii] cannot be the shortest wave. So far, the SPX has a 5841 high. So, we can still label it this way for now.

[Update 12:45 pm EST]

The pattern with the 10-year yields is a long-winded contracting triangle with breakout upside outlook. Today may be the beginning surge and then the talk will all be about interest and mortgage rates surging. Which is of course unsustainable for the economy, the consumer and our debt-laden governments at all levels.

And the short-term rates are holding steady. Powell cannot lower rates if the market tells him not to. The FED must set the short-term rate to what the market signals (best seen through the lens of the combined 3- and 6-month yields) otherwise interest rate distortion occurs which would be bad for the Fed which after all, is a private bank.

[Update 12:25 pm EST]

The market is making an interesting wedge pattern with “overthrow” at the top. Although this is not the primary count, I have to show it, nonetheless because if it is correct the collapse will be very, very swift back down through the bottom wedge line in total exhaustion. Today’s euphoric gap up and all is wonderful with the world is kind of overdone, don’t ya think?

So, the pattern is interesting but if no quick follow-through crashing through the downside, then it is not a true rising bearish wedge.

Prices gapped right over the last major resistance. I think prices will still struggle here and today’s massive gap up will close in Minute wave [iv] of 3.

Wave (iii) of [iii] cannot be the shortest wave. So, Minute [iii]’s top price must come in under about 5845. The adjusted key wave marker has been raised a bit from 5555 to 5578.

The market confirmed the short-term wave count with a higher recovery high today.

Today might have been the top of Minute [iii], but it could just be the first subwave of (v) of [iii]. I prefer it to be the first subwave as wave (v) of [iii] needs to stretch out a bit perhaps.

The best bear count is a truncated (1) down and an A-B-C up. If this is the count, then today would be a good stopping point, and all waves are minimally in place to consider the count complete. We may have got a “top tick” moment with Trump saying to buy stocks. Just a thought. It’s not the primary count but the VIX is still quite elevated. Any sharp price move below 5555 is concerning for bulls.

Fighting to maintain the 5600 level.

The Fed didn’t lower rates because the market has yet to signal lower rates. The market leads (Specifically the 3- and 6-month yield) and the Fed follows. That’s the way it has always worked.

Better late than never. The market is trying to consolidate the gains and defend the 5600 level as support.

Today was pretty much expected. As noted on Friday, after 9 days up in a row for the SPX, it was due for some consolidation. The count is wave (iv) of [iii] of 3 of (5) up. An expected alternate corrective would be a wave (iv) zigzag down versus the wave (ii) flat. The count cannot go below the wave (i) peak or else this is not an impulse wave up as labeled.

The best bear count is simplistic (1) – (2) …I haven’t ignored this count at all, it’s just on the back burner until and unless a price drop below key levels would demand that this count gets primary attention. In theory, wave twos can go as high as they require.

The “upside surprise” of a third of a third wave continues. Best count has the market seeking the top of Subminuette wave v of Minuette (v) of Minute [iii] of Minor 3 of intermediate (5) of Primary [5]. How’s that for a count? LOL.

The market breadth finally expanded again in today’s move which is bullish. It had been declining as prices rose with everyone expecting the bottom to drop out again.

Today is also 9 straight up days in the SPX which has not occurred since 2004.

I could see a small early Monday pop and then a consolidation effort that could take the market a few days to digest. The spectacular gains to get back to 5700 so quickly will likely result in a sideways (relatively speaking) movement of and an ultimate defense of the newly acquired 5600 support level.

The new key wave marker is 5596 give or take.

Yeah, I used every wave degree because it was fun to count today. A Monday morning pop to above 5700 would be fitting and then perhaps some up and down sideways action to consolidate gains.

The way I see it, there really is only one major resistance layer that lies above at roughly the 5800 level. It’s likely going to take some price consolidating above 5600 before the assault above. The market is still in an aggressive Minor wave 3 and daily RSI is screaming higher.

If my count is correct, I show a rough outline of what the rest of a wave (5) of [5] would look like.

Elliott Wave International used to like to say GOLD behaves like a commodity and goes parabolic as many commodities are wanting to do.

Best guess stab at long term bonds. A clear impulse down from peak and a weak rebound. Perhaps it’ll take a total market crash later this year to push money back into bonds.

Someday the dollar will zoom back to the peaks of 1984 – 1985. I really believe that. Remember, bonds sell into dollars and not the other way around. It’s the underlying debt that is danger first of being liquidated. I always kind of laugh when people say the “dollar is worthless and will crash”. Really? As if any other fiat currency is more of a safe haven than Babylon USA’s? Wouldn’t the worthless debt (bonds) be liquidated first? Is paper GOLD going to save you? You can’t cash in your GOLD ETF for any real gold. Good luck on that. A world reset is coming. You know it, I know it they know it and they really aren’t even trying to hide it.

Trump wants the Fed to lower rates, but the market has yet to determine that.

COMMENTARY

Trump’s tariffs are really only about one thing: preparing Babylon USA for war with China, Russia, and North Korea. These are the 3 remaining populations that the New World Order must subdue to enact their global government, bring about their one world currency, and one world religion (Satanism) and it’s going to take WWIII and a global financial collapse and global reset to achieve it. In fact, Putin, Xi, and Rocketman are probably in on it. Satan is actively engineering all this to come about.

The children of the devil are not playing around. Most people underestimate of the tremendous murder they are capable of because we are so well removed from the real horrors of WWI and WWII. Things always come in threes…

The tariffs are indeed forcing American companies to move supply lines out of China, giving time to reestablish. Democrats didn’t cheat for the win in 2024 because at the top levels, they of course are all in on it. As are the Republicans. The Uniparty. Sure, the dumb masses get all riled up on both sides. Bread and circuses.

This is why dystopian games and moves, and TV shows are so HUGELY popular. They are preparing us mentally for a world that really will be dark and scary and murderous and… inevitable. They want people to believe it’s inevitable and now most probably do.